720
FXUS64 KBMX 111756
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1149 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEK AHEAD, BRINGING
US BACK TO SEASONABLE RANGES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS (AND BEYOND), A SERIES OF
TROUGHS AND LOW PRESSURES WILL DIG THROUGH THE MIDWEST, BEFORE
EJECTING TOWARDS THE NE. EACH OF THESE TROUGHS WILL VARY IN
STRENGTH AND DEPTH, BUT EACH WILL PLAY A DECIDING ROLE IN OUR
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK. IT ALL STARTS ON THURSDAY, WHEN THE
FIRST DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
IS LIKELY TO PUT A LID ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FALL, WITH HIGHS ON
THURSDAY RANGING ONLY IN THE UPPER-30 TO MID-40S. FROM HERE, WE
WILL ENTER INTO A SERIES OF "WARMING AND COOLING" BETWEEN THE NEXT
SEVERAL SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY REBOUND FOR A DAY OR
TWO, BEFORE FALLING ONCE MORE BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WHILE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY SEASONABLE FROM A TEMPERATURE
STANDPOINT, MOST LOCATIONS WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST, WITH MINRH VALUES DROPPING BACK
BELOW 40%. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE GIVEN RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL. GIVEN SOIL MOISTURE AND WET FUELS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 46 23 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 48 25 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 46 26 48 30 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 51 27 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 51 26 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 51 28 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 54 26 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 54 28 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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