165
FXUS64 KBMX 121123
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
523 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 522 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOTS OF
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS
WEEK, WHICH WILL LEAD TO COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AL. BY WEDNESDAY, A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO START DIGGING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. THERE'S A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-
60%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE EXPECTATION HERE IS THAT AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, SO WE DON'T EXPECT
ANY WINTER PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
THE TROUGH SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AS
WE GET THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH FOLLOWS QUICKLY BEHIND,
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS THE SYSTEM
THAT SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT WINTER IMPACTS FROM RUN TO
RUN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, GOING PAST SINGLE RUNS OF
DETERMINISTIC MODELS, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS
STEADILY BEEN ON THE LOWER SIDE. LATEST RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
WITH THIS TROUGH AS THE QUICK SUCCESSION DOESN'T ALLOW FOR MUCH
MOISTURE RETURN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. THIS COULD CHANGE IN COMING
RUNS AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH, BUT FOR NOW I'M EDGING TO THE
DRIER SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL MORNINGS IN
THE LOW 20S OR UPPER TEENS. THIS WILL CAUSE ISSUES WITH ANY
EXPOSED OUTDOOR PIPES OR ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE HEATING SOURCES.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST, BUT MAY
BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM AT TIMES.
16
FIRE WEATHER
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH MINRHS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20% TO 30% RANGE. WE'LL SEE
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, THEN WE'LL HAVE A
RETURN OF COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 49 24 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 49 28 56 37 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 49 30 56 39 / 0 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 51 29 57 38 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 51 29 57 38 / 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 50 32 56 39 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 49 28 56 38 / 0 0 0 10
TROY 49 28 58 38 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...16
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