426
FXUS64 KBMX 121655
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1055 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1051 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOTS OF
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS THE REGION REMAINS
INFLUENCED BY A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE, AND NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD VERY STABLE, AND KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AT ABOUT SEASONAL. HOWEVER, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE FIRST OF MANY DEEP TROUGHS BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE, NOT
MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
THE PATTERN WILL REALLY SHIFT ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH INTO
THURSDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WORK IN UNDER STOUT NW
FLOW, DROPPING TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE IN THE MID-30S TO LOW-40S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW-20S. GIVEN THE TIGHTNESS OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, THESE COULD END UP BEING EVEN LOWER THAN THAT. FROM
HERE, WE WILL ENTER A SERIES OF "WARMING AND COOLING," WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY REBOUNDING, BEFORE THE NEXT DEEP TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT BRING THINGS BACK DOWN. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE THE TREND
BEYOND SEVEN DAYS AS WELL, AS A LOT OF LONG-TERM GUIDANCE IS
ALREADY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXTENDED LONG-TERM STAYING
LOADED WITH TROUGH AFTER TROUGH.
THERE HAVE BEEN WHISPERS PERTAINING TO WINTER WEATHER, AND WINTER
WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THAT DOESN'T
APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN RIGHT NOW. THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS GOING TO DO A
VERY GOOD JOB AT PUSHING THE LIMITED MOISTURE OVERHEAD OUT OF THE
REGION, WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
IN TURN, THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN DRY, BUT THIS OBVIOUSLY
SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE COURSE OF THIS
WEEK.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST, WITH MINRH VALUES DROPPING BACK
INTO THE 30-40% RANGE. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE GIVEN RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE ARE ALSO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES COME THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT NO MAJOR RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. GIVEN SOIL
MOISTURE AND WET FUELS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO
NONE INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 50 25 57 36 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 49 28 57 38 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 49 30 56 41 / 0 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 51 29 58 40 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 51 29 59 39 / 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 49 32 58 41 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 50 27 57 39 / 0 0 0 20
TROY 51 29 58 39 / 0 0 0 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page