373
FXUS64 KBMX 122335
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
535 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 535 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS THE REGION REMAINS
INFLUENCED BY A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE, AND NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD VERY STABLE, AND KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AT ABOUT SEASONAL. HOWEVER, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE FIRST OF MANY DEEP TROUGHS BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE, NOT
MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
THE PATTERN WILL REALLY SHIFT ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH INTO
THURSDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WORK IN UNDER STOUT NW
FLOW, DROPPING TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE IN THE MID-30S TO LOW-40S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW-20S. GIVEN THE TIGHTNESS OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, THESE COULD END UP BEING EVEN LOWER THAN THAT. FROM
HERE, WE WILL ENTER A SERIES OF "WARMING AND COOLING," WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY REBOUNDING, BEFORE THE NEXT DEEP TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT BRING THINGS BACK DOWN. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE THE TREND
BEYOND SEVEN DAYS AS WELL, AS A LOT OF LONG-TERM GUIDANCE IS
ALREADY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXTENDED LONG-TERM STAYING
LOADED WITH TROUGH AFTER TROUGH.
THERE HAVE BEEN WHISPERS PERTAINING TO WINTER WEATHER, AND WINTER
WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THAT DOESN'T
APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN RIGHT NOW. THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS GOING TO DO A
VERY GOOD JOB AT PUSHING THE LIMITED MOISTURE OVERHEAD OUT OF THE
REGION, WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
IN TURN, THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN DRY, BUT THIS OBVIOUSLY
SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE COURSE OF THIS
WEEK.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS.
NOTE: THERE IS A COMMUNICATIONS LINE ISSUE AFFECTING THE BIRMINGHAM
AIRPORT. OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT BEING TRANSMITTED AS OF MID MONDAY
AFTERNOON (JAN 12), THOUGH THE NWS BIRMINGHAM OFFICE CAN REACH THE
ASOS FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE TAF WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UPDATED IN BETWEEN SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCES.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
MINRHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 30S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 85 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE NO RH
CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MINRHS IN THE 30S
WITH SOME 20S ARE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE GIVEN RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE ARE ALSO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES COME THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, BUT NO MAJOR RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. GIVEN SOIL
MOISTURE AND WET FUELS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE
TO NONE INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 25 57 36 54 / 0 0 0 40
ANNISTON 28 57 38 55 / 0 0 10 30
BIRMINGHAM 30 56 41 52 / 0 0 10 30
TUSCALOOSA 29 58 40 55 / 0 0 10 30
CALERA 29 59 39 56 / 0 0 10 20
AUBURN 32 58 41 56 / 0 0 10 10
MONTGOMERY 27 57 39 58 / 0 0 20 20
TROY 29 58 39 59 / 0 0 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page