511
FXUS64 KBMX 200743
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
143 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 142 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL AND DRY TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. ONE MORE COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW, WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN
CHANCES, WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
TOWARD THE GULF COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE REGION, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER, ROUGHLY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
CLANTON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE
BIG WEEKEND WEATHER MAKER ARRIVES. A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA, ORIGINATING
FROM A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA LATE WEEK. AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH, A SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS COAST
AND TRACK EITHER ALONG THE GULF COAST OR JUST INLAND SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WITH A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA, THIS WILL PROMOTE AN
OVERRUNNING SETUP THAT MAY BECOME HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION.
ALTHOUGH EXACT DETAILS, SUCH AS PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS, WILL
CONTINUE TO VARY RUN TO RUN WITH NEW MODEL UPDATES, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN SOME TYPE OF WINTER MISCHIEF BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LASTING, IN SOME FORM OR FASHION, UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TYPE, GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD A FREEZING RAIN SETUP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES, WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL CURRENTLY
EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MS, AL, GA, AND NEARLY ALL OF
TN. MUCH QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE MODELS AS TO THE CHANGEOVER
BETWEEN SNOW AND ICE, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY IS FOR THE
ICE/SNOW LINE TO MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH IN NORTH ALABAMA. WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST, GENERALLY MORE TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE, WITH A HIGHER MIX OF ICE AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES IN OUR CENTRAL ALABAMA
REGION CURRENTLY LOOK TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF ICE ACCUMULATION,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL A COUPLE DAYS TOO EARLY TO START NAILING DOWN
PROJECTED ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS.
IF CURRENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS HOLD, AND SO FAR THEY HAVE FOR THE
LAST 48 HOURS OR SO, THIS COULD BECOME A DANGEROUS WINTER EVENT FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OF ALABAMA. IT IS IMPERATIVE TO STAY
TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES AND ANY CHANGES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS
AS THE FORECAST BECOMES BETTER REFINED.
12
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MIN RH WILL DROP INTO THE 15-30% RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. 20 FT WINDS WILL BE
A TAD HIGHER NEAR THE GA STATE LINE, UP TO 8 MPH. WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA, WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RETURNING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MIN RH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS STILL
LIKELY TO FALL TO 20-30% IN AREAS EAST OF I-65, AS MOISTURE TAKES
LONGER TO BUILD IN. A WET PATTERN BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR
THIS WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 46 21 55 36 / 0 0 30 70
ANNISTON 46 24 56 38 / 0 0 20 50
BIRMINGHAM 46 29 55 41 / 0 0 30 70
TUSCALOOSA 49 29 56 42 / 0 0 30 70
CALERA 49 27 57 40 / 0 0 30 60
AUBURN 51 30 57 41 / 0 0 10 20
MONTGOMERY 52 29 60 43 / 0 0 10 30
TROY 53 30 59 40 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION.../44/
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