228
FXUS64 KBMX 210621
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1221 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SEE A BIT OF A WARMUP TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONT STALLING OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH TOWARD
THE GULF COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
REGION, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL
FOR UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY, HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE THE BIG WEEKEND WEATHER MAKER ARRIVES. A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA,
ORIGINATING FROM A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, A SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST AND TRACK EITHER ALONG THE GULF COAST OR JUST INLAND
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA, THIS WILL
PROMOTE AN OVERRUNNING SETUP THAT MAY BECOME HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
WINTER PRECIPITATION.
WITH ANY WINTER WEATHER EVENT IN THE SOUTH, THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON A VARIETY OF FACTORS, SOME OF WHICH ARE EITHER POORLY
MODELED OR CANNOT BE RESOLVED BY THE LOWER-RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS.
THE SETUP WITH THIS EVENT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE LOW TO
OUR SOUTH, WHETHER THE LOW STAYS OVER WATER SOUTH OF THE FL
PANHANDLE AND TRACKS TOWARD THE BIG BEND OR IF IT COMES INLAND
AROUND NEW ORLEANS OR MOBILE AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND GA. A
MORE NORTHERN TRACK, FOR INSTANCE, WILL BRING WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FARTHER NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY
PUSHING THE RAIN/ICE LINE AND ULTIMATELY THE ICE/SNOW LINE FURTHER
NORTH TOWARD NORTH AL AND TN. AS OF THIS FORECAST UPDATE, THE
WORKING SCENARIO IS FOR SNOW TOTALS TO DRASTICALLY INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO NORTH AL AND TN. ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE GREATEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
U.S. 72 AND NORTH OF I-20, ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE EXPECTED
SNOW ACCUMULATION.
A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW, STAYING OVER WATER, WOULD LIKELY
MEAN THE POTENTIAL ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLY, A TREND IN THE NBM HAS BEEN OBSERVED TO BE LIMITING
ICE ACCUMULATION OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL AL TO AROUND 0.5-0.75",
WHILE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY SHOWN AS MUCH AS 1.5-1.75" OF
ICE ACCUMULATION SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE IN THAT RANGE BETWEEN
U.S. 72 AND I-20. THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF NBM AVERAGING OUT
HIGHER TOTALS BECAUSE THEY OCCUR OVER DIFFERENT AREAS OF THE STATE,
GIVEN A SPECIFIC MODEL OR A SPECIFIC RUN. THE NBM SHOWING LOWER
TOTALS ACROSS A BROADER AREA SHOULD NOT LULL ANYONE INTO THINKING
THAT ICE ACCUMULATION CANNOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IN A CERTAIN
CORRIDOR.
NOW, LOOKING AT THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF AS THIS
DISCUSSION IS WRITTEN, THE GFS BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW INLAND ACROSS
MOBILE AND DOTHAN WHILE THE ECMWF DELIVERED A DRASTIC SHIFT,
BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS BIRMINGHAM AND MUCH DEEPER, WITH THE
WARM NOSE EXTENDING WELL UP INTO EAST TN. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY
DIFFERENT THAN MOST RUNS OF THE ECMWF SINCE SUNDAY AND WILL BEAR
CLOSE WATCHING TO SEE IF A TREND DEVELOPS. IF A TREND HOLDS WITH THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTH, THAT COULD REQUIRE CHANGES TO THE CENTRAL
ALABAMA FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO "WINDSHIELD WIPE" WITH A COMPLICATED WINTER
FORECAST, SO IN SPITE OF THE 00Z ECMWF, WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
POTENTIALLY VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF, FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FRIGID,
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR LOW 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
12
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD WILL EXPERIENCE NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS,
EVEN WITH RAIN MOVING IN PAST 21/21Z. HOWEVER, MVFR CIGS WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE IN PAST 22/01Z AT KBHM, KTCL, AND KEET. FROM
THERE, MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
NEXT TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
MIN RHS ARE LIKELY TO FALL AGAIN INTO THE 20-35% RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE
AREA, WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. A WET PATTERN BEGINS
TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 56 40 53 40 / 30 80 50 60
ANNISTON 57 42 53 41 / 20 70 60 60
BIRMINGHAM 56 45 53 43 / 30 80 50 60
TUSCALOOSA 56 44 54 42 / 40 80 60 60
CALERA 57 43 55 43 / 30 70 60 60
AUBURN 57 45 59 48 / 0 30 50 50
MONTGOMERY 60 47 62 48 / 10 40 50 50
TROY 60 45 67 49 / 10 20 40 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION.../44/
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page