672
FXUS64 KBMX 211946
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
146 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 144 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
THURSDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
- A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. OVERALL ICE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY
FROM THE LAST UPDATE.
- VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED IN THE COMING
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
AN EXTREMELY SENSITIVE AND TRICKY FORECAST IS EVOLVING ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON THE KBMX RADAR AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS UNDERWAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SOMEWHAT BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD TREK. THIS BOUNDARY
IS LIKELY TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THURSDAY AND LINGER FOR
A DAY BEFORE IT IS FINALLY NUDGED DOWN TO THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL HANG ONTO MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
ALL EYES TURN TO OUR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EPISODE OVER THE
WEEKEND. RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING NORTH,
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A COLD RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. THE FORECAST REMAINS HEAVILY TIED TO THE GULF
LOW AND HOW FAR NORTH AND/OR EAST IT MOVES. WHILE RECENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE STATE, BRINGING UP WARMER
TEMPS, WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE SCENARIO OF THIS LOW
STAYING TO OUR SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPS TO WIN OUT,
ULTIMATELY LEADING TO WINTRY PRECIP. CHANCES FOR THIS APPEAR TO BE
DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME.
OUR LATEST FORECAST REFLECTS THESE RECENT TRENDS WITH MOST OF THE
AREA WARMING INTO THE MID 30 TO 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A FINE LINE WHERE
WE SEE THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO A COLD RAIN. WE WILL
NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS AS IT VERY WELL COULD SAG
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. WILL NOT PLAN ON ANY
CHANGES TO OUR WINTER STORM WATCH CONFIGURATION AT THIS TIME AS
CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW THAT OUR CENTRAL STRIP OF COUNTIES WILL BE
SPARED FROM ANY WINTER PRECIP. OUR ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. IF THE CURRENT
TREND CONTINUES, WE WOULD SEE THESE AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN.
WE FINALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH THAT SAID, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. THE COLD AIR WEDGE TENDS TO KEEP THOSE NEAR THE
AL/GA LINE A GOOD BIT COOLER. THIS FEATURE WILL BE BETTER RESOLVED
ONCE WE GET INTO THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUITE. IF THE WEDGE WINS
OUT, WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. LOW TEMPS OUT OF THE DOOR MONDAY MORNING WILL BE
DOWN AROUND 10-20 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TUESDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE EVEN COLDER WITH LOWS FROM 5-15 DEGREES FOR
MOST. LOOK FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES TO BE POSTED IN THE
COMING DAYS.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AT
BHM/EET/TCL WITH GUSTS FROM 15-20 KNOTS. -RA LOOKS TO BEGIN ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 00Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO
THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD TO AUO/MGM BY 12-13Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THIS TAF WINDOW AS THE FRONT STALLS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MIN RHS ARE LIKELY TO FALL AGAIN INTO THE 25-35% RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE
AREA, WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. A WET PATTERN
BEGINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MIN RHS BACK INTO THE 30-40% RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 40 53 39 49 / 80 50 50 40
ANNISTON 42 53 41 52 / 80 60 50 40
BIRMINGHAM 45 53 43 51 / 80 60 50 40
TUSCALOOSA 44 55 42 52 / 80 60 50 40
CALERA 43 55 43 54 / 80 60 60 40
AUBURN 45 59 47 59 / 30 50 50 50
MONTGOMERY 47 61 49 62 / 40 50 50 50
TROY 45 66 49 66 / 20 40 30 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CHEROKEE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-LAMAR-
MARION-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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