229
FXUS64 KBMX 221105
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
505 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 505 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
- A STALLED FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
- A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED IN THE COMING DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY
INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH TOWARD THE GULF COAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING IF RAIN SUBSIDES.
MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY SATURDAY AND
EJECT ENE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO TEXAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AND MOVE NE INTO ALABAMA BY SUNDAY. AS OF THIS FORECAST
UPDATE, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE MODELING FOR THE LOW TO
TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE BIRMINGHAM METRO AREA, WITH A GOOD WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALABAMA. SOME DATA
INDICATES TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY
REACH THE 60S AND EVEN LOW 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS IS SHOWN IN THE LATEST RUNS OF
SEVERAL MODELS, INCLUDING THE ECMWF, GFS, CMC, ICON, 12KM NAM, AND
RRFS. A FEW OF THESE MODELS EXPLICITLY BRING 60S TO NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE BIRMINGHAM METRO SUNDAY MORNING, DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THUNDER HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO
THE FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH NO DEFINITIVE SEVERE THREAT
EXISTS AT THIS TIME, SUNDAY MORNING WILL BEAR WATCHING AS MODELS
INDICATE 500-700 J/KG SBCAPE AND MODEST SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR.
BACK TO THE NORTH, OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DO REMAIN UNDER A WINTER
STORM WATCH BEGINNING FRIDAY AT 6 PM AND CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH
6 PM SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BEGIN ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS STILL INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. HOWEVER, AS SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A WARM NOSE ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AHEAD
OF THE LOW, EVEN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY BECOMING ALL RAIN
WITH MID 30S. SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD WILL MEAN DIFFERENCES IN ANY ICE ACCUMULATION VS. PERIODS OF
RAIN. HIGHEST ICE POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY OVER MARION, WINSTON, AND
NORTHERN LAMAR COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST ALSO SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING OVER GEORGIA TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA. WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY AT FIRST HAVE A
TOUGH TIME OVERCOMING THE WEDGE TO THE EAST. THUS, FREEZING RAIN AND
ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER COUNTIES SUCH AS ETOWAH,
CHEROKEE, CLEBURNE, AND NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FINALLY DO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THIS IS
CURRENTLY SHOWN IN THE FORECAST, BUT ANY ICE POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IF WE SEE TEMPS TICK UP FROM THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF 30-31 TO 33-35, THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
THE CHANCE OF ANY ICE ACCUMULATION. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE
WINTER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME, BUT AN EXPANSION INTO CALHOUN AND
CLEBURNE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
NOW, AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA, TAKING THE WARM SECTOR AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS INTO GEORGIA, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGGRESSIVELY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEGINNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL TURN BACK INTO FREEZING RAIN AND
THEN POTENTIALLY END AS SNOW SHOWERS AS THE ENTIRE VERTICAL COLUMN
FALLS BELOW FREEZING. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY MORE ROBUST WITH
LEFTOVER MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF, WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATION BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES HAVE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS
OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
ALL THAT IS TO SAY THAT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT DRASTICALLY
DIFFERENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
EVERYONE WILL FINALLY GET IN ON THE COLD SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
AND 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN AREAS MAY STAY BELOW FREEZING
MONDAY BEFORE THE ENTIRE AREA GETS EVEN COLDER MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
AREA-WIDE TEENS LIKELY AND SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-20. A
SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK.
12
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYS TODAY.
CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES RAIN MAY END FOR BHM, EET, AND TCL AROUND 00Z
AND FOR MGM/AUO AFTER 08Z. MVFR CIGS AT BEST TODAY, WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
12
FIRE WEATHER
A WET PATTERN BEGINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MIN
RHS BACK INTO THE 30-40% RANGE BY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 51 39 49 31 / 70 60 30 20
ANNISTON 51 41 50 33 / 80 60 40 20
BIRMINGHAM 51 42 49 34 / 80 60 30 20
TUSCALOOSA 54 41 50 34 / 80 60 30 20
CALERA 53 42 52 35 / 80 60 40 20
AUBURN 57 48 57 40 / 70 60 60 20
MONTGOMERY 59 50 59 42 / 70 60 60 20
TROY 66 50 63 44 / 40 50 60 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CHEROKEE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-LAMAR-
MARION-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...12
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