350
FXUS64 KBMX 222332
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
532 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 529 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
- A STALLED FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTH INTO
FRIDAY.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN CENTRAL
ALABAMA.
- VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED IN THE COMING DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
OVERALL, OUR THINKING ON THIS WEEKEND'S WEATHER HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. THE LATEST MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PRECIP
WE WILL SEE DURING THE DAY. WITH THAT SAID, THERE WILL BE A VERY
FINE GRADIENT ALONG THE FREEZING LINE SO WE COULD SEE OUR FREEZING
RAIN THREAT SAG SOUTH BRIEFLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL COME ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. HAVE TRANSITIONED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
OVER THOSE AREAS TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO 1/4" AND AND SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1" ARE LIKELY.
THE ADVISORY CURRENTLY INCLUDES WALKER AND FAYETTE COUNTIES. THESE
TWO COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THAT FREEZING LINE SO THERE
IS A CHANCE THEY WARM UP ENOUGH TO SEE ONLY RAIN. IF THAT SCENARIO
PANS OUT, WE WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ADVISORY CONFIGURATION
AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTH TO INCLUDE CALHOUN
AND CLEBURNE COUNTIES. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON
THE COLD AIR WEDGE PUSHING ACROSS THE AL/GA LINE. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD PROMOTE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE
GROWS IN THIS OUTCOME, WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN UPGRADE TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.
ANOTHER SNEAKY HAZARD WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE OUR PROLONGED RAINFALL
THREAT. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 2-4"
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND 1-2" ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH THIS
RAIN FALLING OVER SEVERAL DAYS, WE SHOULDN'T SEE TOO MUCH OF A
HYDRO THREAT DEVELOP. WITH THAT SAID, IF TOTALS CONTINUE TO CREEP
UP, A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED GOING FORWARD.
SUNDAY'S FORECAST WILL ALSO BE A BIT COMPLICATED. WE WILL START WITH
THE WINTER RISK. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL ON SUNDAY AS MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
SYSTEM WOULD START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS
THE COLUMN COOLS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL POSE A RISK FOR BLACK ICE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. NOW FOR THE OTHER FACTOR ON
SUNDAY. WE ALSO NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR STRONG STORMS ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. INSTABILITY WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WE WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH CAPE VALUES
SETTLING INTO THE 400-600 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH SHEAR VALUES FROM
50-60 KNOTS. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW THIS SITUATION DEVELOPS
AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE CAM TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
TO WRAP THIS UP, COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING DROP INTO THE 10-20 DEGREE
RANGE FOR MOST. TUESDAY FEATURES EVEN COLDER TEMPS FROM 5-15
DEGREES.
95/CASTILLO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY
INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH TOWARD THE GULF COAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING IF RAIN SUBSIDES.
MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY SATURDAY AND
EJECT ENE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO TEXAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AND MOVE NE INTO ALABAMA BY SUNDAY. AS OF THIS FORECAST
UPDATE, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE MODELING FOR THE LOW TO
TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE BIRMINGHAM METRO AREA, WITH A GOOD WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALABAMA. SOME DATA
INDICATES TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY
REACH THE 60S AND EVEN LOW 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS IS SHOWN IN THE LATEST RUNS OF
SEVERAL MODELS, INCLUDING THE ECMWF, GFS, CMC, ICON, 12KM NAM, AND
RRFS. A FEW OF THESE MODELS EXPLICITLY BRING 60S TO NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE BIRMINGHAM METRO SUNDAY MORNING, DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THUNDER HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO
THE FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH NO DEFINITIVE SEVERE THREAT
EXISTS AT THIS TIME, SUNDAY MORNING WILL BEAR WATCHING AS MODELS
INDICATE 500-700 J/KG SBCAPE AND MODEST SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR.
BACK TO THE NORTH, OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DO REMAIN UNDER A WINTER
STORM WATCH BEGINNING FRIDAY AT 6 PM AND CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH
6 PM SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BEGIN ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS STILL INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. HOWEVER, AS SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A WARM NOSE ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AHEAD
OF THE LOW, EVEN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY BECOMING ALL RAIN
WITH MID 30S. SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD WILL MEAN DIFFERENCES IN ANY ICE ACCUMULATION VS. PERIODS OF
RAIN. HIGHEST ICE POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY OVER MARION, WINSTON, AND
NORTHERN LAMAR COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST ALSO SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING OVER GEORGIA TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA. WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY AT FIRST HAVE A
TOUGH TIME OVERCOMING THE WEDGE TO THE EAST. THUS, FREEZING RAIN AND
ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER COUNTIES SUCH AS ETOWAH,
CHEROKEE, CLEBURNE, AND NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FINALLY DO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THIS IS
CURRENTLY SHOWN IN THE FORECAST, BUT ANY ICE POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IF WE SEE TEMPS TICK UP FROM THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF 30-31 TO 33-35, THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
THE CHANCE OF ANY ICE ACCUMULATION. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE
WINTER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME, BUT AN EXPANSION INTO CALHOUN AND
CLEBURNE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
NOW, AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA, TAKING THE WARM SECTOR AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS INTO GEORGIA, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGGRESSIVELY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEGINNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL TURN BACK INTO FREEZING RAIN AND
THEN POTENTIALLY END AS SNOW SHOWERS AS THE ENTIRE VERTICAL COLUMN
FALLS BELOW FREEZING. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY MORE ROBUST WITH
LEFTOVER MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF, WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATION BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES HAVE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS
OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
ALL THAT IS TO SAY THAT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT DRASTICALLY
DIFFERENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
EVERYONE WILL FINALLY GET IN ON THE COLD SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
AND 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN AREAS MAY STAY BELOW FREEZING
MONDAY BEFORE THE ENTIRE AREA GETS EVEN COLDER MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
AREA-WIDE TEENS LIKELY AND SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-20. A
SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK.
12
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
CLOUDY SKIES WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AT
AUO. MEANWHILE, LOW CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT, WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS LOW. EXPECT SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS AS WE MOVE TOWARD MIDDAY FRIDAY,
THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN BKN TO OVC WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
16
FIRE WEATHER
A WET PATTERN BEGINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MIN
RHS BACK INTO THE 30-40% RANGE BY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 38 49 30 45 / 30 10 10 60
ANNISTON 40 50 33 47 / 50 20 10 60
BIRMINGHAM 42 49 34 49 / 30 10 10 60
TUSCALOOSA 41 51 33 49 / 20 10 10 70
CALERA 42 54 33 52 / 40 10 10 60
AUBURN 47 58 41 50 / 60 30 10 40
MONTGOMERY 49 59 41 59 / 50 30 10 40
TROY 49 62 43 62 / 40 40 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: FAYETTE-LAMAR-MARION-WALKER-WINSTON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: FAYETTE-LAMAR-MARION-WALKER-WINSTON.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CHEROKEE-ETOWAH.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CALHOUN-CLEBURNE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...16
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