287
FXUS64 KBMX 231754
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1154 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1153 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
- A LEVEL 1/5 MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN AND CLEBURNE
COUNTIES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR SNOW POSSIBLE.
- VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED IN THE COMING DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WINTER STORM
THIS WEEKEND, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MINOR ICE OR SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE PRESENT ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO MAKE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE BE RAIN.
HOWEVER, ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA, PRIMARILY MARION COUNTY. AN ICE
STORM IS LIKELY TO UNFOLD FROM CENTRAL MS INTO WEST/MIDDLE TN,
JUST STAYING OUTSIDE OUR CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES. ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS IN MARION AND OTHER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE OVER GEORGIA. THE EXTENT OF COLD
ENOUGH AIR FAR ENOUGH WEST INTO ALABAMA REMAINS IN QUESTION, AND
MORE ELEVATED AREAS OF CHEROKEE, ETOWAH, CALHOUN, AND CLEBURNE
COUNTIES WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE AT A WINDOW OF ICE ACCUMULATION
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE AREA WELL ABOVE
FREEZING ON SUNDAY MORNING.
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO ALABAMA AND PASS CLOSE TO
THE BIRMINGHAM METRO AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOST,
IF NOT ALL, OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BEING ABOVE FREEZING. A DECENT WARM
SECTOR WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LOW AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
TOWARD I-20, WITH 60S AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOW 70S ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT, ON THE
ORDER OF 500-700 J/KG SBCAPE, WITH ENOUGH SHEAR TO POSE A SEVERE
WEATHER RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SUCH AS SELMA, MONTGOMERY,
AUBURN, AND TROY. THESE STORMS WILL FORM A BROKEN LINE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES
BEFORE EXITING INTO GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A LEVEL 1
MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE, ONGOING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY
POSE A FEW FLOODING CONCERNS, AS 2-4" OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO FALL ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL WARRANT CLOSE ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
TO SEE IF A FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
SUNDAY EVENING, AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND THE WHIPLASH WARMUP
AND COOLDOWN OF SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE, ANY LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS ISN'T A
"DEFINITE" AND QUESTIONS REMAIN ON IF AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY BE
LEFT OVER. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CURRENTLY GOES THROUGH 6 PM
SUNDAY, AFTER WHICH MOST PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD INTO
GEORGIA. BLOUNT, ETOWAH, AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES WERE UPGRADED INTO
THE ADVISORY FROM THE WINTER STORM WATCH, LEAVING CALHOUN AND
CLEBURNE STILL IN THE WATCH FOR NOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
QUITE LOW IN THESE COUNTIES RECEIVING MUCH AT ALL IN THE FORM OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS PARTS OF THESE COUNTIES
SATURDAY NIGHT (COLD AIR WEDGE) AND SUNDAY EVENING (LEFTOVER
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT).
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY SUNDAY EVENING, GETTING INTO THE
TEENS OR LOW 20S FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF I-85 OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY,
MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-20 ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE GETTING EVEN COLDER MONDAY NIGHT, WITH TEENS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILL WILL LIKELY HIT COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES MONDAY
MORNING WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING IN
PART OF THE AREA.
SOME MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED AT ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER DURING THE
NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW, NOT ENOUGH CONSISTENT MODEL SUPPORT EXISTS FOR
INTRODUCTION INTO THE FORECAST, BUT THAT IS OF COURSE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
12
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AL AS A SURFACE
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY MIX OUT TO MOSTLY VFR CATEGORY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. LOWER
STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
A WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MIN RHS BACK INTO THE 25-
40% RANGE BY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 49 29 47 37 / 0 10 70 100
ANNISTON 51 32 48 40 / 10 0 60 100
BIRMINGHAM 50 33 48 43 / 0 10 70 100
TUSCALOOSA 52 32 48 43 / 0 10 90 100
CALERA 54 32 52 44 / 0 0 70 100
AUBURN 59 40 51 46 / 20 10 30 90
MONTGOMERY 61 40 58 51 / 10 0 50 90
TROY 64 42 61 55 / 10 0 30 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CHEROKEE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-LAMAR-MARION-WALKER-WINSTON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CHEROKEE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-LAMAR-
MARION-WALKER-WINSTON.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CALHOUN-CLEBURNE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...56/GDG
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