500
FXUS64 KBMX 241109
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
509 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 506 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
- A LEVEL 1/5 MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD
WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOWS REACH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
I FEEL LIKE I HAVE LARGE SHOES TO FILL THIS MORNING TRYING TO FOLLOW
UP ON SOME EXCELLENT FORECAST DISCUSSIONS THE LAST FEW DAYS. IN AN
EFFORT TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE, I WILL OPT TO EXPLAIN MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST TONIGHT, INSTEAD OF GOING OVER THE SAME THINGS MY
COUNTERPARTS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT DETAIL.
WINTER WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE THREAT FOR WINTER WEATHER STILL SEEMS TO BE ISOLATED TO A
HANDFUL OF OUR NORTH ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT, WE HAD
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT TO GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE EXISTING WINTER
STORM WATCH EARLY FOR CALHOUN AND CLEBURNE COUNTIES. WHILE SOME
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HERE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL DON'T SEEM ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER AND IMPACTS. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, AND IT REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES, IT
MAY END UP GETTING CANCELED EARLY AS WELL. IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING
HERE GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS, SOME OF THESE COUNTIES MAY END UP
COMING OUT OF THIS WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS, AND THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER WEATHER REMAINS IN OUR NW.
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING:
AFTERNOON GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO
THE NORTH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF TO WORK FARTHER NORTH, AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES. FOR THE MOST PART, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF CAPE ALONG THE LINES OF 500-700 J/KG COULD WORK AS FAR
NORTH AS ELMORE COUNTY AND EAST, CONTINUING TO TREK EAST AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN FORECAST WIND PROFILES, AND
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW PRESSURE, DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS, BUT THESE THREATS REMAIN VERY CONDITIONAL.
THUS, THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) REMAINS IN PLACE.
VERY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT:
INCREDIBLY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS ALMOST CERTAIN, BUT
THERE'S AN INTERESTING CAVEAT HERE THAT WOULD DICTATE JUST HOW COLD
THE REGION GETS. A KEY FACTOR IN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS THE AIR
HAVING TO TRAVEL OVER ALL OF THE SNOW TO OUR NORTH. THIS WOULD HAVE
AIDED IN KEEPING THE COLD AIRMASS EVEN COLDER. WELL, AS THE THREAT
FOR A LARGE SNOWPACK TO OUR NORTH DECREASES, AS DOES THE CEILING FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, THE
FLOOR FOR THESE LOWS REMAINS VERY HIGH, AND THIS MAY ULTIMATELY
RESULT IN A DIFFERENCE OF ONLY 2-3 DEGREES WHEN IT'S ALL SAID AND
DONE. HOWEVER, IT'S WORTH MENTIONING JUST IN CASE THE FORECAST
STARTS TO "WARM" THE NEXT FEW DAYS, EVEN WITH THESE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING THE LEAST CONDITIONAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.
BECAUSE OF THIS, THE EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT, WITH
FUTURE UPGRADES LIKELY TO COME IN THE NEXT 24-HOURS OR SO.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD:
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK REMAINING DRY. I'M SURE SOME OF YOU HAVE
SEEN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE OUTPUT FOR NEXT WEEKEND, AND YES, IT'S
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE WE SEE ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND
GIVEN WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THAT'S
ANOTHER FORECAST THAT WILL ENTIRELY DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE, WHICH IS WHY IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOT LOCK ONTO ANY ONE MODEL
OUTPUT THIS FAR OUT. AS WE'RE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING, WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS NEED TIME TO EVOLVE, AND WE'LL HAVE A MUCH BETTER PICTURE OF
WHAT THINGS COULD LOOK LIKE HERE IN A FEW DAYS.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS TAF
PERIOD, WITH MOST TERMINALS EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO IFR OR LIFR
CATEGORY. REDUCED VIS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. EXPECT LIKE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND GIVEN WIDESPREAD EXPECTED RAINFALL.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES BY MONDAY. DRY AIR WILL
QUICKLY WORK INTO THE REGION BY THE NEW WORKWEEK, WITH MINRH
VALUES DROPPING BACK BETWEEN 30-40%. GIVEN THE WET FUELS, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 48 37 55 16 / 60 90 100 30
ANNISTON 50 39 58 20 / 40 90 100 30
BIRMINGHAM 48 42 56 19 / 60 100 100 20
TUSCALOOSA 48 41 52 19 / 80 100 100 20
CALERA 53 42 59 19 / 60 100 100 30
AUBURN 54 42 63 26 / 20 80 100 50
MONTGOMERY 58 51 70 23 / 30 80 100 40
TROY 60 53 71 23 / 20 70 90 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CHEROKEE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-LAMAR-MARION-WALKER-
WINSTON.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-
CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-
ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-
RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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