151
FXUS64 KBMX 251127
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
527 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 524 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
- A LEVEL 2/5 SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL IS FINALLY WORKING INTO THE REGION,
WITH THE THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, THAT THREAT
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PAST 10AM ONCE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS
THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTH. BECAUSE OF THIS, I HAVE BROUGHT BACK
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRATION TIME TO NOON ON SUNDAY, AND
GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES TRENDS, MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL IT EARLIER THAN
THAT. WITH THAT BEING SAID, WE'RE STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH FLASH FREEZE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE GIVEN ALL THE RAIN WE'LL RECEIVE TODAY. BLACK
ICE MAY RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS, CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, AS LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
5-20 DEGREES. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT, WHERE LOWS ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0-15
DEGREES AREA-WIDE.
SHIFTING SOUTH OF I-20 FOR TODAY, THE SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5), BUT TRIMMED IT FARTHER SOUTH TO MATCH THE MAIN AXIS
OF INSTABILITY. HERE, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CAPE
BETWEEN 500-700 J/KG WILL WORK NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH
PLENTY OF SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT, WITH
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LEAVING THE REGION BY 3PM.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE COLD SIDE, AS A REINFORCING
TROUGH CLIPS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY, PUSHING THE TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN. WINTER WEATHER STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THESE
TEMPERATURES, BUT JUST LIKE I MENTIONED LAST NIGHT, THAT PORTION OF
THE FORECAST HEAVILY DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE.
BECAUSE OF THAT, I WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATUS-QUO IN SIMPLY
MENTIONING IT, AS LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE SPLIT AT THIS
TIME.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DUE
TO ONGOING RAIN. THIS RAIN WILL ONLY GET HEAVIER THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH QUICK DROPS IN VIS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY. RAIN WILL GENERALLY END PAST 25/22Z, WITH CLOUDS
REMAINING LOW THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
MIX BACK INTO MVFR PAST 26/08Z.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES BY MONDAY. DRY AIR WILL
QUICKLY WORK INTO THE REGION BY THE NEW WORKWEEK, WITH MINRH
VALUES DROPPING BACK BETWEEN 30-40%. GIVEN THE WET FUELS, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 56 16 34 10 / 100 10 0 0
ANNISTON 59 19 35 13 / 100 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 59 19 33 13 / 100 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 57 18 35 14 / 100 0 0 0
CALERA 61 19 37 13 / 100 10 0 0
AUBURN 63 25 39 18 / 100 40 0 0
MONTGOMERY 70 23 39 17 / 100 20 0 0
TROY 72 24 41 16 / 100 40 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: CHEROKEE-FAYETTE-LAMAR-MARION-WALKER-WINSTON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-
CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-
ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-
RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-
CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-
ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-
RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BARBOUR-BULLOCK-LOWNDES-MACON-
MONTGOMERY-PIKE-RUSSELL.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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