964
FXUS64 KBMX 251757
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1157 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1153 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
- A TORNADO WATCH IN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM FOR SOUTHEASTERN
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
ANOTHER BUSY DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. TO START, THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 18Z AS TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME
LIGHT ACTIVITY AS COLDER MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.
AS OF WRITING, WE HAVE QUITE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID
60S. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
STILL HINTS AT A PLUME OF MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-700 J/KG ALONG WITH
BULK SHEAR GREATER THAN 60 KNOTS AND 0-3KM SRH FROM 400-500 M2/S2
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO THREAT. WOULD
EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE, A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 PM. SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS IN PLACE AS A RESULT OF THE PARAMETER SPACE.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS LINE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 40-50 KNOTS AT TIMES.
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST AS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES.
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY RUSH INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT. A BLACK ICE THREAT WILL DEVELOP AS
TEMPERATURES SHARPLY FALL THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT
ON JUST HOW MUCH WE CAN DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL HELP IN THIS EFFORT. OUR TYPICAL POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE AT GREATEST RISK. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. APPARENT TEMPS EACH MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 0
TO 15 DEGREES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY. HIGH TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 30S/40S WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO 20S EACH
NIGHT. THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN CHATTER ONLINE ABOUT A POTENTIAL
SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH SOLUTIONS NEXT
WEEKEND SO FOR NOW, WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE TRENDS.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE COMMON ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW CEILINGS
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR BY 15-16Z.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES BY MONDAY. DRY AIR WILL
QUICKLY WORK INTO THE REGION BY THE NEW WORKWEEK, WITH MINRH
VALUES DROPPING BACK BETWEEN 30-40%. GIVEN THE WET FUELS, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 48 16 33 9 / 100 0 0 0
ANNISTON 51 19 34 12 / 100 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 53 19 33 13 / 100 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 58 19 35 13 / 100 0 0 0
CALERA 55 19 37 13 / 100 0 0 0
AUBURN 53 25 39 17 / 100 20 0 0
MONTGOMERY 62 23 39 16 / 100 10 0 0
TROY 65 24 41 16 / 100 20 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: LAMAR-MARION.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-
CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-
ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-
RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-
CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-
ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-
RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BULLOCK-DALLAS-ELMORE-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-RUSSELL.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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