748
FXUS64 KBMX 260148
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
748 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 709 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
- VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
ANOTHER BUSY DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. TO START, THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 18Z AS TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME
LIGHT ACTIVITY AS COLDER MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.
AS OF WRITING, WE HAVE QUITE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID
60S. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
STILL HINTS AT A PLUME OF MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-700 J/KG ALONG WITH
BULK SHEAR GREATER THAN 60 KNOTS AND 0-3KM SRH FROM 400-500 M2/S2
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO THREAT. WOULD
EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE, A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 PM. SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS IN PLACE AS A RESULT OF THE PARAMETER SPACE.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS LINE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 40-50 KNOTS AT TIMES.
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST AS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES.
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY RUSH INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT. A BLACK ICE THREAT WILL DEVELOP AS
TEMPERATURES SHARPLY FALL THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT
ON JUST HOW MUCH WE CAN DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL HELP IN THIS EFFORT. OUR TYPICAL POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE AT GREATEST RISK. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. APPARENT TEMPS EACH MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 0
TO 15 DEGREES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY. HIGH TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 30S/40S WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO 20S EACH
NIGHT. THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN CHATTER ONLINE ABOUT A POTENTIAL
SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH SOLUTIONS NEXT
WEEKEND SO FOR NOW, WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE TRENDS.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
LIFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE PRESENT BEHIND THE RAIN TONIGHT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE 18Z MON.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME MVFR VSBYS, ELEVATED WIND SHOULD HELP KEEP
ANY FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
08
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES BY MONDAY. DRY AIR WILL
QUICKLY WORK INTO THE REGION BY THE NEW WORKWEEK, WITH MINRH
VALUES DROPPING BACK BETWEEN 30-40%. GIVEN THE WET FUELS, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 16 33 9 40 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 19 34 12 40 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 19 33 13 39 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 19 35 13 42 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 19 37 13 42 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 25 39 17 42 / 20 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 23 39 16 43 / 10 0 0 0
TROY 24 41 16 43 / 20 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-
CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-
ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-
RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-
CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-
ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-
RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...08
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