716
FXUS64 KBMX 282327
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
527 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
- A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, FOLLOWED
BY A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
OVERALL, MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. STILL 75 TO 100 MILES
APART WITH THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY, BUT THAT IS A REDUCTION IN
DISTANCE AT LEAST.
FORECAST WISE, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY.
WE MAY SEE A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY EVENING IN THE
NORTHWEST, BUT THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LOWS WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN RISE AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA. GUIDANCE AGREES FOR THE MOST PART THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE IN AFTER WE GO ABOVE FREEZING.
THE RAIN EXITS AND THEN THE COLD AIR MOVES IN AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ALOFT AS THE
UPPER LOW SWINGS CLOSER TO THE AREA. OUR WEATHER OR LACK OF
WEATHER REALLY DEPENDS ON THE EXACT PATH. A PATH THAT TAKES
THROUGH OVER CHATTANOOGA AND THEN INTO NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA,
WOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A PATH THAT TAKES
THE LOW FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA INTO NORTHEASTERN
GEORGIA, SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRIER, WITH ONLY SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR FAR NORTHEAST. RIGHT NOW THE ENSEMBLES ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION SO WILL HEDGE THE FORECAST THAT
WAY, BUT WE WILL NOT TOTALLY BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES
TO SEE SNOW.
EITHER WAY, IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 20
DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. SUNDAY WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. WIND CHILLS
ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR AREAS NORTH
OF I-85 AND AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT STILL A BIT EARLY TO INCLUDE WITH THIS
UPDATE.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON THURSDAY.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH MINRH VALUES HOVERING THE THE
30-40% RANGE. MINRH VALUES WILL SLOWLY START TO CLIMB INTO THE
WEEKEND, AS MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT. EVEN WITH THE DRY WEEK AHEAD, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 20 46 22 45 / 0 0 0 20
ANNISTON 22 48 27 47 / 0 0 0 20
BIRMINGHAM 24 48 30 45 / 0 0 0 20
TUSCALOOSA 24 51 30 48 / 0 0 0 20
CALERA 24 52 29 48 / 0 0 0 20
AUBURN 28 51 33 50 / 0 0 0 20
MONTGOMERY 25 53 31 52 / 0 0 0 20
TROY 25 54 32 55 / 0 0 0 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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