766
FXUS64 KBMX 290833
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
233 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 225 AM CST THU JAN 28 2026
- A CHILLY AND BELOW NORMAL AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC OUTBREAK THAT WILL AFFECT
THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. AN
EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST BETWEEN 3 BELOW ZERO AND THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST THU JAN 28 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
A CHILLY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS, WHICH AT THIS POINT IS A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE PREVIOUS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS MORNING, LOWS ARE WELL ON TRACK TO DROP INTO THE LOW AND MID
20S BY SUNRISE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX THAT WILL
DIVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. IN THE MEANTIME, UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL TEMPORARILY BECOME ZONAL WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HALEYVILLE TO THE MID 50S IN EUFAULA
UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE. COMPARED TO WHAT WE'LL SEE THIS WEEKEND,
I'D CONSIDER THAT A HEAT WAVE. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, THE VORT MAX WILL SWING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, ALONG
WITH A MOISTURE-STARVED WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE ARKLAMISS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. GUIDANCE IS TRYING
ITS BEST TO SQUEEZE OUT A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE FRIDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A VAST NUMBER OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AREN'T SATURATED ENOUGH, IT'S PROBABLY PRUDENT TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR WINTRY MIX IN THE FORECAST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE LOW CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN LINGERING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE ARCTIC PLUNGE WILL QUICKLY BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE AND A NEGATIVELY-TILTED 500MB TROUGH
AND VERY POTENT VORT MAX DIVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.
THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND TRACK FROM NASHVILLE TO ATHENS,
GEORGIA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS MORNING'S SYNOPTIC
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW JUST A TAD FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTHWEST FROM YESTERDAY'S RUNS, WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY
LEAD TO A BETTER SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH 700MB WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT IN
TIME, I'VE DECIDED TO NOT MENTION A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY JUST YET BEING THREE DAYS AWAY. HOWEVER,
BASED ON THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING IF THOSE TRENDS HOLD UP WE'LL
LIKELY HAVE TO ADD THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. TO BE HONEST, I REALLY
WANTED TO ADD IT IN THIS MORNING, BUT WITH A LACK OF HIGH-RES AND
CAM SOLUTIONS THE NBM ISN'T GRABBING THE POTENTIAL JUST YET. SYNOPTIC
GUIDANCE IS SIMPLY TOO COARSE TO PICK UP ON MESOSCALE-DRIVEN
CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR OUT, SO WE'LL SEE WHAT
THE CAMS PICK UP ON OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS ARE GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT BRUTAL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST POTENTIALLY BETWEEN
30 AND 40MPH SATURDAY MORNING, WIND CHILLS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE LOW AND MID TEENS NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WITH VERY STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING TO SEND ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD,
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT ARE FORECAST TO NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN FACT, NORTHERN
COUNTIES MIGHT NOT RISE ABOVE 25 DEGREES. ONE ASPECT OF THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN
INTO ACCOUNT IS THE EXTENSIVE SNOW AND ICE PACK THAT IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. MODIFICATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE REDUCED, AND MAY LEAD TO EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAN ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. THAT'S SOMETHING ELSE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TO GET AHEAD OF THE
EXPECTED COLD WAVE IN TERMS OF MESSAGING AND PREPARATION, WE'VE
ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO WIND CHILLS REMAINING EITHER BELOW ZERO OR
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE. CURRENT NBM WIND GUIDANCE MAY BE
UNDERESTIMATING HOW QUICKLY GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND QUICKLY BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. WITH
THAT IN MIND, I'VE TRENDED TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF NBM GUIDANCE
IN TERMS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS LOWS
DROP BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES AREAWIDE.
THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THIS DANGEROUS COLD WAVE WILL BE OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. BE SURE TO HAVE PREPARATIONS IN PLACE TO PROTECT
PEOPLE, PETS, AND PIPES, AS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. WE'LL FINALLY RISE INTO THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAPIDLY FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ONCE AGAIN BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
TEMPERATURES ARE THANKFULLY EXPECTED TO MODERATE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER HEIGHTS RISE AND 700 TO 500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ONCE AGAIN.
WE COULD REACH "BALMY" TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BY TUESDAY BEFORE
THE PATTERN "RELOADS" AND THE NEXT TROUGH IS POISED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SURFACE LOW HEADED OUR DIRECTION
FROM THE ARKLATEX WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOTS
TO RESOLVE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE BEFORE WE GET THERE, BUT THE
ACTIVE AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF
LETTING UP AS WE GO INTO EARLY FEBRUARY.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST THU JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
TERMINALS WITH LIGHT OR VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE SHORT-TERM, WITH MINRH VALUES
HOVERING IN THE 30-40% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. MINRH VALUES WILL
CLIMB BY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AS MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK
BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. VERY COLD AND VERY
DRY AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40MPH ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MINRH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SINGLE DIGIT TO NEAR ZERO DEWPOINT VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 20 46 23 46 / 0 0 0 20
ANNISTON 22 48 26 47 / 0 0 0 20
BIRMINGHAM 24 48 28 46 / 0 0 0 20
TUSCALOOSA 25 51 30 47 / 0 0 10 20
CALERA 24 51 28 48 / 0 0 0 20
AUBURN 27 51 33 50 / 0 0 0 20
MONTGOMERY 25 53 32 52 / 0 0 0 20
TROY 25 54 32 54 / 0 0 0 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-
CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-
ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-
RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...56/GDG
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