366
FXUS64 KBMX 291812
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. AN
EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A EXTREME COLD WARNING
IN LAMAR AND MARION COUNTIES AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST BETWEEN 2 BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO
LOW TEENS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
- THE EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST BETWEEN ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ELSEWHERE SUNDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OF CHEROKEE AND ETOWAH COUNTIES, WHILE
FLURRIES TO A TRACE MAY BE POSSIBLE WESTWARD TO I-65.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
FORECAST WISE, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING IN A TOUCH DRIER WITH THE RAIN SO WILL
ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED POCKETS OF RAIN ALONG THE
FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LOWS WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TO
3 AM TONIGHT AND THEN RISE AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
GUIDANCE AGREES FOR THE MOST PART THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE IN
AFTER WE GO ABOVE FREEZING.
THE RAIN EXITS AND THEN THE COLD AIR MOVES IN AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ALOFT AS THE
UPPER LOW SWINGS CLOSER TO THE AREA. OUR WEATHER OR LACK OF
WEATHER REALLY DEPENDS ON THE EXACT PATH. A PATH THAT TAKES
THROUGH OVER CHATTANOOGA AND THEN INTO NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA,
WOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A PATH THAT TAKES
THE LOW FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA INTO NORTHEASTERN
GEORGIA, SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRIER, WITH ONLY SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR FAR NORTHEAST. WITH THE LATEST RUNS, THE
TRENDS ARE IN-BETWEEN TO THESE TWO. ADDED IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND FLURRIES WESTWARD TO I-65, INCLUDING
BIRMINGHAM. AT THIS TIME STILL EXPECTING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
INCH IN THE FAR NORTHEAST TO VERY LITTLE IF ANY ANY ALL AS YOU GO
WEST. AS WE ENTER THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD AND THE CAMS GET MORE
INVOLVED THEN WE COULD SEE SOME CHANGES NEEDED.
EITHER WAY, IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 20
DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-85 AND
AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTREME
COLD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY MORNING WITH A WATCH FOR
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THIS DANGEROUS COLD WAVE WILL BE OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. BE SURE TO HAVE PREPARATIONS IN PLACE TO PROTECT
PEOPLE, PETS, AND PIPES, AS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. WE'LL FINALLY RISE INTO THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAPIDLY FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ONCE AGAIN BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS
WITH LIGHT OR VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. WE WILL SEE SOME LOWERING OF
CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY.
16
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL CLIMB BY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AS
MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. VERY COLD AND VERY DRY AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS AS
HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH ON SATURDAY SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. MINRH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO
THE 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SINGLE DIGIT TO NEAR
ZERO DEWPOINT VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 23 47 18 25 / 0 10 20 10
ANNISTON 26 50 20 24 / 0 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 28 47 18 25 / 0 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 29 49 20 27 / 0 10 0 0
CALERA 28 50 19 26 / 0 10 10 0
AUBURN 33 52 23 26 / 0 20 10 10
MONTGOMERY 31 54 23 29 / 0 20 0 0
TROY 32 56 25 28 / 0 20 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: LAMAR-MARION.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-
BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-
DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-
LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-
RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-
BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-
DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-
SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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