352
FXUS64 KBMX 300626
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1226 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINING
IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST BETWEEN 4 BELOW ZERO IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
- THE EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST BETWEEN 3 BELOW ZERO ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE SUNDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD LEAD TO VERY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS, MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS FOR BANDS OF SNOW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP AS
FAR SOUTH AS CLANTON AND ALEXANDER CITY THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
FORECAST WISE, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING IN A TOUCH DRIER WITH THE RAIN SO WILL
ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED POCKETS OF RAIN ALONG THE
FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LOWS WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TO
3 AM TONIGHT AND THEN RISE AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
GUIDANCE AGREES FOR THE MOST PART THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE IN
AFTER WE GO ABOVE FREEZING.
THE RAIN EXITS AND THEN THE COLD AIR MOVES IN AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ALOFT AS THE
UPPER LOW SWINGS CLOSER TO THE AREA. OUR WEATHER OR LACK OF
WEATHER REALLY DEPENDS ON THE EXACT PATH. A PATH THAT TAKES
THROUGH OVER CHATTANOOGA AND THEN INTO NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA,
WOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A PATH THAT TAKES
THE LOW FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA INTO NORTHEASTERN
GEORGIA, SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRIER, WITH ONLY SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR FAR NORTHEAST. WITH THE LATEST RUNS, THE
TRENDS ARE IN-BETWEEN TO THESE TWO. ADDED IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND FLURRIES WESTWARD TO I-65, INCLUDING
BIRMINGHAM. AT THIS TIME STILL EXPECTING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
INCH IN THE FAR NORTHEAST TO VERY LITTLE IF ANY ANY ALL AS YOU GO
WEST. AS WE ENTER THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD AND THE CAMS GET MORE
INVOLVED THEN WE COULD SEE SOME CHANGES NEEDED.
EITHER WAY, IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 20
DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-85 AND
AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTREME
COLD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY MORNING WITH A WATCH FOR
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THIS DANGEROUS COLD WAVE WILL BE OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. BE SURE TO HAVE PREPARATIONS IN PLACE TO PROTECT
PEOPLE, PETS, AND PIPES, AS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. WE'LL FINALLY RISE INTO THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAPIDLY FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ONCE AGAIN BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CALM OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWER
MVFR CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LATER TODAY, ALONG WITH INCREASING PREVAILING
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KNOTS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL CLIMB BY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AS
MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. VERY COLD AND VERY DRY AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS AS
HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH ON SATURDAY SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. MINRH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO
THE 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SINGLE DIGIT TO NEAR
ZERO DEWPOINT VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 48 17 27 12 / 0 20 20 0
ANNISTON 48 18 26 13 / 10 20 20 0
BIRMINGHAM 49 18 27 14 / 0 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 50 18 29 16 / 0 10 0 0
CALERA 50 18 28 14 / 0 10 10 0
AUBURN 52 22 28 15 / 10 10 10 0
MONTGOMERY 54 23 31 17 / 10 10 10 0
TROY 56 23 31 16 / 0 10 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CHILTON-DALLAS-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-MARENGO-
MARION-PERRY-PICKENS-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-
BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-
DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-
LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-
RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ELMORE-LEE-MACON-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-
RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...56/GDG
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