209
FXUS64 KBMX 300809
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
209 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINING
IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST BETWEEN 4 BELOW ZERO IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
- THE EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST BETWEEN 3 BELOW ZERO ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE SUNDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD LEAD TO VERY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS, MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS FOR BANDS OF SNOW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP AS
FAR SOUTH AS CLANTON AND ALEXANDER CITY THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
A STALLED OUT SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING FROM ARKANSAS
EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THAT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT WILL
REMAIN A DRY SYSTEM WITH VERY LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. IN FACT,
A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS SHOWING UP ON THE GOES-19 NIGHT FOG CHANNEL
IS CURRENTLY HEADED EASTBOUND IN MISSISSIPPI, AND WE'LL HAVE TO
SEE HOW FAR EAST THOSE CLOUDS CAN GET BY DAYBREAK. AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL TIME WOULD AFFECT HOURLY TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON, THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE INBOUND BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE, THE
VERY POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND 500MB VORT MAX TO OUR NORTH
WILL QUICKLY DIVE TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH AND BECOME A CLOSED LOW
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ZONE IN ON THE TRACK OF THE
DYNAMIC, CLOSED UPPER LOW DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE LATEST
00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE TRACKS THE SYSTEM EVEN CLOSER TO THE AREA,
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN YESTERDAY. THAT WILL ALSO INCREASE
CHANCES (ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE LOWER END) OF MORE ORGANIZED BANDS
OF SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
AS MOISTURE BELOW 700MB WRAPS AROUND FROM THE NORTH. SEEING BETTER
AGREEMENT FROM THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL SIGNALS FROM
CAMS, I'VE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO 20 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS FAR
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR SNOW SHOWERS STARTING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY. WITHIN THIS AREA,
THERE WOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLEBURNE AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES.
FARTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST, WE'LL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FLURRIES PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS CLANTON AND ALEX
CITY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, WITH HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND THE DRIER NATURE
OF THE SNOW THAT COULD FALL, ACCUMULATION CHANCES WOULD ACTUALLY
BE LOWER IN THAT SCENARIO. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON IT TO SEE IF
ANYTHING CHANGES, AS THIS WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC AND QUICKLY
ORGANIZING SYSTEM.
SPEAKING OF THOSE HIGHER WIND GUSTS, COMBINED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE ARCTIC AIR WE'RE GOING TO BE LOOKING AT VERY DANGEROUS COLD
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY. I'VE DECIDED TO GO ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF PREVAILING WIND AND WIND GUSTS, AS NBM WINDS TYPICALLY
UNDERPERFORM ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS. PLUS, I'D RATHER BE ON THE
HIGHER END TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANCE OF SEEING WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH THAT WOULD SEND WIND CHILLS PLUMMETING DOWN BELOW ZERO IN
VERNON, HAMILTON, AND HALEYVILLE AND AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO SOUTH OF I-85. TAKING THOSE NUMBERS INTO ACCOUNT, THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN GREATLY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL
COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GADSDEN, BIRMINGHAM,
CLANTON, AND FORT DEPOSIT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES
FARTHER TO THE EAST, AND AN EXTREME COLD WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. THAT WATCH WILL
MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR MANY LOCATIONS IF
NOT THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE HIGHER GRADIENT WINDS LASTING A BIT LONGER. ACTUAL LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST
TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND LOW TO MID
TEENS AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LARGE AREA OF SNOW/ICE PACK
CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH COULD ALSO INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES TO BE A
LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE MID
30S AND LOWER 40S. DUE TO THE LONG DURATION OF COLD AIR EXPECTED,
PREPARATIONS SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PLACE TO PROTECT PEOPLE WHO MAY
NOT HAVE ADEQUATE SHELTER OR HEATING, BRING PETS INSIDE, AND COVER
EXPOSED PIPES.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF LETTING UP AS WE
GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP NICELY
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. WE MAY ACTUALLY REACH THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AN ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT DIFFERS IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH
AND ORIENTATION OF THE OVERALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SET TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. FOR NOW, THAT WILL BE OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CALM OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWER
MVFR CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LATER TODAY, ALONG WITH INCREASING PREVAILING
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KNOTS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. VERY
COLD AND VERY DRY AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40
MPH ON SATURDAY SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MINRH
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINT VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 48 17 27 12 / 0 20 20 0
ANNISTON 48 18 26 13 / 10 20 20 0
BIRMINGHAM 49 18 27 14 / 0 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 50 18 29 16 / 0 10 0 0
CALERA 50 18 28 14 / 0 10 10 0
AUBURN 52 22 28 15 / 10 10 10 0
MONTGOMERY 54 23 31 17 / 10 10 10 0
TROY 56 23 31 16 / 0 10 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CHILTON-DALLAS-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-MARENGO-
MARION-PERRY-PICKENS-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-
BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-
DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-
LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-
RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ELMORE-LEE-MACON-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-
RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA.
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...56/GDG
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