216
FXUS64 KBMX 301803
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1203 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING/COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST BETWEEN 4 BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
- THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A EXTREME COLD
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST BETWEEN 3 BELOW ZERO ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE SUNDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY MORNING THAT
COULD LEAD TO 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 1
INCH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- A HIGH CHANCE EXISTS FOR BANDS OF SNOW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP AS
FAR SOUTH AS CLANTON AND ALEXANDER CITY THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
WE WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON
AND COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. A VERY POTENT
UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING CAUSING A HEAP OF ISSUES FOR THE OUR AREA. FIRST
THE LOW WILL HELP USHER IN THE EXTREME COLD INTO THE AREA AS IT
TAPS INTO A FAIRLY LARGE ARCTIC AIRMASS COMING DOWN THROUGH THE
PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME A MID-ATLATIC COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO
INTENSIFY AND WRAP MOISTURE BACK AROUND INTO THE UPPER LOW. WITH
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW PRIMARILY BEING THROUGH
GEORGIA, WE WILL THE COLD AIR WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CREATE SNOW SHOWERS/
FLURRIES FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SEEING ANY IMPACTFUL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN 6 COUNTIES. HERE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. WE STILL HAVE SOME HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SEE BANDS OF
SNOW FLURRIES BACK TO THE WEST AND AS FAR SOUTH AS I-85. FOR THE
MOST PART THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY IMPACTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT
IF A BAND IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH OVER ONE AREA, THERE COULD
POTENTIALLY BE A SMALL AREA IMPACTED.
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING/COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST BETWEEN 4 BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST BETWEEN 3 BELOW ZERO ACROSS
EASTERN COUNTIES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE SUNDAY
MORNING. THE LARGE AREA OF SNOW/ICE PACK CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH
COULD ALSO INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE INDICATES.
16
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF LETTING UP AS WE
GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP NICELY
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. WE MAY ACTUALLY REACH THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AN ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT DIFFERS IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH
AND ORIENTATION OF THE OVERALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SET TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. FOR NOW, THAT WILL BE OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
NW AND INCREASE TO ~6-11KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TONIGHT WITH
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH NW SUSTAINED WINDS OF
~10-15KTS AND GUSTS OF ~20-26KTS. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FROM WNW TO ESE. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS A POST
FRONTAL LOW DIGS SEWD FROM THE PLAINS AND SWINGS ACROSS E CONUS.
16
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT, AS MOISTURE STARTS TO
WORK BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. VERY COLD AND
VERY DRY AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH ON
SATURDAY SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MINRH VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINT VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 17 27 12 37 / 20 20 0 0
ANNISTON 18 26 13 37 / 20 20 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 18 27 14 37 / 10 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 18 29 16 40 / 10 0 0 0
CALERA 18 28 14 39 / 10 10 0 0
AUBURN 22 28 15 38 / 10 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 23 31 17 41 / 10 10 0 0
TROY 23 31 16 40 / 10 10 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CHILTON-DALLAS-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-MARENGO-
MARION-PERRY-PICKENS-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLAY-
CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ELMORE-LEE-MACON-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-
RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ELMORE-LEE-MACON-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-
RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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