407
FXUS64 KBMX 310617
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1217 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING/COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO FALL BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
- AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST BETWEEN 3 BELOW ZERO ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE SUNDAY MORNING.
- SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING THAT
COULD LEAD TO 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 1 INCH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY.
- A HIGH CHANCE EXISTS FOR BANDS OF SNOW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP AS
FAR SOUTH AS CLANTON AND ALEXANDER CITY THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.
HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
WE WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON
AND COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. A VERY POTENT
UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING CAUSING A HEAP OF ISSUES FOR THE OUR AREA. FIRST
THE LOW WILL HELP USHER IN THE EXTREME COLD INTO THE AREA AS IT
TAPS INTO A FAIRLY LARGE ARCTIC AIRMASS COMING DOWN THROUGH THE
PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME A MID-ATLATIC COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO
INTENSIFY AND WRAP MOISTURE BACK AROUND INTO THE UPPER LOW. WITH
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW PRIMARILY BEING THROUGH
GEORGIA, WE WILL THE COLD AIR WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CREATE SNOW SHOWERS/
FLURRIES FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SEEING ANY IMPACTFUL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN 6 COUNTIES. HERE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. WE STILL HAVE SOME HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SEE BANDS OF
SNOW FLURRIES BACK TO THE WEST AND AS FAR SOUTH AS I-85. FOR THE
MOST PART THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY IMPACTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT
IF A BAND IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH OVER ONE AREA, THERE COULD
POTENTIALLY BE A SMALL AREA IMPACTED.
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING/COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST BETWEEN 4 BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST BETWEEN 3 BELOW ZERO ACROSS
EASTERN COUNTIES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE SUNDAY
MORNING. THE LARGE AREA OF SNOW/ICE PACK CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH
COULD ALSO INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE INDICATES.
16
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF LETTING UP AS WE
GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP NICELY
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. WE MAY ACTUALLY REACH THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AN ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT DIFFERS IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH
AND ORIENTATION OF THE OVERALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SET TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. FOR NOW, THAT WILL BE OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND WILL AFFECT NORTHERN TERMINALS FOLLOWED BY MGM
AND AUO CLOSER TO 12Z. WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY AVIATION
HAZARD OTHER THAN THE LOWER CEILINGS, WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST
PREVAILING WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 35 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH 18Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 18Z TODAY THAT COULD CAUSE A QUICK REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE THOSE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
HAPPEN TO DEVELOP AND MAY NEED TO AMEND A FEW FORECASTS TO ADD -SN
AND REDUCED VIS. FOR NOW, HOWEVER, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
LOCATIONS WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THAT WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE PREVAILING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT, AS MOISTURE STARTS TO
WORK BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. VERY COLD AND
VERY DRY AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH ON
SATURDAY SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MINRH VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINT VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 20 27 13 38 / 20 20 0 0
ANNISTON 23 28 14 38 / 20 20 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 20 27 16 38 / 10 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 22 31 17 41 / 10 0 0 0
CALERA 22 29 16 40 / 10 10 0 0
AUBURN 25 30 16 39 / 10 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 27 33 18 41 / 10 10 0 0
TROY 26 32 16 41 / 10 10 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CHILTON-DALLAS-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-
GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MARION-PERRY-PICKENS-
SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-
RANDOLPH.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-
CLEBURNE-COOSA-ELMORE-LEE-MACON-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ELMORE-LEE-MACON-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-
RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...56/GDG
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