778
FXUS64 KBMX 311156
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
556 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 549 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING/COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
FALL BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
- AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST BETWEEN 3 BELOW ZERO ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE SUNDAY MORNING.
- SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING THAT
COULD LEAD TO 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 1 INCH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY.
- A HIGH CHANCE EXISTS FOR BANDS OF SNOW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP AS
FAR SOUTH AS CLANTON AND ALEXANDER CITY THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.
HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK IN TERMS OF THE EXPECTATION
OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING COLD CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN TERMS OF THE CURRENT PROGRESS OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING SOUTHWARD, IT'S A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND IN
TERMS OF THE HOURLY FORECAST WITH 26 OBSERVED IN HALEYVILLE, 30 IN
BIRMINGHAM, AND MID 30S ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, UPPER
TEENS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN TENNESSEE ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD PEAK WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH. WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO ARE BEING REPORTED AS A RESULT, AND
THAT'S HEADED IN OUR DIRECTION. ALTHOUGH SOME MODIFICATIONS HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE HOURLIES AND OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A
FEW DEGREES, ALL COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS REMAIN UNCHANGED. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WIND GUSTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
WILL BE NO JOKE LATER THIS MORNING, GUSTING BETWEEN 30 AND 40MPH.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPLITTING
HAIRS BETWEEN A FEW DEGREES IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST WIND CHILLS
SHOULDN'T REALLY MATTER IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS, AND WE'D
RATHER CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE OVERALL IMPACT OF HOW HAZARDOUS THE
COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR THOSE WHO DON'T HAVE ADEQUATE SHELTER
OR HEAT ALONG WITH THOSE WHO MAY HAVE TO VENTURE OUTSIDE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY CRAWL UPWARD THROUGH THE DAY
WITH VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. IF CLOUDS HANG
TOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY NORTH OF I-20, MID 20S FOR HIGHS WILL BE
COMMON WHILE I-85 SOUTHWARD WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, 10 TO 15MPH
PREVAILING WINDS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25MPH WILL SEND WIND CHILLS
PLUMMETING ONCE AGAIN. BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WITH LOWEST NUMBERS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO DROP
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AREAWIDE. THE EXTREME COLD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
IN TERMS OF THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY, WE'LL HAVE TO
START LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW AND MONITORING RADAR TRENDS TO WATCH
WHERE THE SNOWFLAKES WILL BEGIN FLYING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THE HIGHLY ADVERTISED, DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS
ON OUR FRONT PORCH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE. EVERY RUN OF
THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO INCH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW FARTHER SOUTHWEST, AND THIS MORNING IS NO
DIFFERENT. CONSENSUS IS FOR THE CLOSED LOW TO NOW TRACK FROM
NASHVILLE TO FORT PAYNE THROUGH MIDDAY AND MOVING CLOSE TO ATLANTA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY, WE WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR FAR NORTHEAST AND EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDDAY. THAT WAS PROBABLY A PRUDENT DECISION
BASED ON SEVERAL OF THE LATEST CAM SOLUTIONS THAT I'VE LOOKED AT
THIS MORNING THAT ARE HONING IN ON THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE COUNTIES. IN ADDITION, THE SYNOPTIC
GUIDANCE (EVEN THOUGH THE RESOLUTION IS TOO COARSE TO RESOLVE QPF
AT THE SURFACE) IS SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF 100% RH AT 700MB
MOVING SOUTHWARD TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
MOIST ENOUGH IN SOME LOCATIONS TO SUPPORT SNOW DEVELOPMENT.
THEREFORE, IT'S STILL VERY LIKELY THAT WE'LL HAVE BANDS OF SNOW
FLURRIES DEVELOP AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND
MORE ISOLATED FLURRIES AS FAR SOUTH AS CLANTON AND ALEX CITY. WHEN
YOU HAVE A SYSTEM THAT IS AS DYNAMIC AS THIS ONE IS, YOU ALWAYS
HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW SURPRISES.
BY SUNDAY AFTER THE QUICK DEPARTURE OF THE WINTER STORM TO THE
EAST, WELCOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN ALONG WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO
SUBSIDE. WE'LL FINALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE, BUT REMAIN
VERY COLD IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME CALM SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
DROP TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ONCE AGAIN. ONE
QUESTION MARK THAT MIGHT CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO NOT DROP QUITE AS
MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE A FAST-MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL INCREASE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
A VERY WELCOMED WARM-UP WILL BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO "SOAR" INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY AND EVEN LOWER 60S FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT
EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WILL QUICKLY
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE DEEP SOUTH STARTING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT ARE BEING ADVERTISED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THANKFULLY, THAT WAVE OF COLD AIR ISN'T LOOKING NEARLY AS
COLD AS WHAT WE'RE CURRENTLY DEALING WITH.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS C AL AS
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SWINGS THROUGH. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE NOTED
AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY TODAY WITH SUSTAINED
INITIALLY FROM 10-15KTS AND GUSTS 22-26 KTS, INCREASING BY 5-10KTS
DURING THE DAY WITH VERY TIGHT GRADIENTS. BHM MAY SEE MVFR CIGS
AGAIN AFTER 7Z TONIGHT AS WELL.
08
FIRE WEATHER
VERY COLD AND VERY DRY AIR WILL RETURN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS AS HIGH
AS 35 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. MINRH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER 30S THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE MID TO UPPER
20S SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINT VALUES. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY MONDAY WITH RHS ON THE REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WITH A LIKELY CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 27 13 38 16 / 20 0 0 0
ANNISTON 28 14 38 20 / 20 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 27 16 38 22 / 10 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 31 17 41 21 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 29 16 40 20 / 10 0 0 0
AUBURN 30 16 39 22 / 10 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 33 18 41 20 / 10 0 0 0
TROY 32 16 41 20 / 10 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CHILTON-DALLAS-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-
GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MARION-PERRY-PICKENS-
SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-
CLEBURNE-COOSA-ELMORE-LEE-MACON-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ELMORE-LEE-MACON-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-RANDOLPH-
RUSSELL-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA.
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...08
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