582
FXUS64 KBMX 010703
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
103 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 102 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
RANGE NEAR ZERO ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE BY DAYBREAK.
- FOLLOWING ANOTHER HARD FREEZE ON MONDAY MORNING, A WELCOMED
WARM-UP WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE FORECAST AREAWIDE.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK ROUND OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR ABNORMALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE LONG-RANGE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME, WITH GUIDANCE ADVERTISING MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST TRENDS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT AT 102 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
WE'RE ABOUT TO HAVE THE WORST BEHIND US IN TERMS OF THE PROLONGED
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THAT WE'VE EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST
WEEK AND A HALF, WITH MODERATING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY. FIRST, WE STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS
FAR NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA DUE TO SOME LEFTOVER WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CLOSED LOW. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART OFF TO THE EAST,
THESE FLURRIES WILL FINALLY TAPER OFF, BUT IN THE MEANTIME HAVE
KEPT FLURRIES MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
MEANWHILE, IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS, WE'RE STILL
GOING TO BE TALKING ABOUT DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ON THE WHOLE WERE RUNNING A COUPLE OF
DEGREES TOO COOL BASED ON THE CURRENT OBSERVED RATE OF ADVECTION
COOLING. HOWEVER, HALEYVILLE WAS ALREADY 15 AS OF JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LOWER 20S TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. LOW
TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD A DEGREE OR SO
AREAWIDE BASED ON CURRENT OBS TRENDS, BUT WE'RE STILL ANTICIPATING
13 TO 15 DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND MID TO UPPER
TEENS FOR ALL OTHER LOCATIONS BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERALL, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STILL PREVAIL
BETWEEN 10 AND 15MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25MPH OVERNIGHT.
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY WITH
WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO IN THE FAR EAST (MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS) TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR EVERYONE ELSE.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING
THE MORNING, EXPECTED TO FINALLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY. WELCOMED
SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR MOST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED UP JUST A BIT
IN TERMS OF EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES, NOW RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES TO
AN END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT, WITH WINDS
BECOMING CALM AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SENDING TEMPERATURES FALLING
ONCE AGAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHWARD WILL
INCREASE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WHICH COULD CAUSE LOWS
TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STAY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, LOWER 20S AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED UPPER
TEENS ARE ANTICIPATED BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. NO COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS
WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT DUE TO CALM WINDS AND ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE "GREAT THAW" WILL THEN COMMENCE MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE RETURNS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL BE
COMMON BY TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SYNOPTIC LIFT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTHWEST AND MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A KICKER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK ROUND OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD. THIS WAVE OF COLD AIR WON'T BE NEARLY AS COLD
AS THE ONE WE'RE DEALING WITH NOW, AS WE'LL BE BACK INTO THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY FRIDAY FOLLOWING A CHILLY DAY ON THURSDAY.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT AT 102 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
SOME STUBBORN CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SIX HOURS. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO MVFR CATEGORY AT BHM AND EET BEFORE CLEARING BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES BUT
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, BUT
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
VERY COLD AND VERY DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. MINRH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY WITH RHS ON THE
REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WITH A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
WETTING RAINFALL ARRIVING BY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 16 39 17 51 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 17 39 20 51 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 18 39 23 52 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 19 41 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 18 41 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 18 40 23 50 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 20 43 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 18 42 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...56/GDG
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