561
FXUS64 KBMX 021128
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
528 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 507 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
- FOLLOWING ANOTHER HARD FREEZE THIS MORNING, A WELCOMED WARM-
UP WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE FORECAST AREAWIDE.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK ROUND OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR ABNORMALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE LONG-RANGE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME, WITH GUIDANCE ADVERTISING MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST TRENDS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
- LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AND
MUCH WARMER PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE U.S. BY THE WEEK OF
FEBRUARY 9TH. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTING A HIGH CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH TO OBSERVE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT AT 106 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE UPCOMING 7 TO 10 DAY FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ON
THE TRANQUIL SIDE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE DEEP SOUTH.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WE'LL SEE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD AT TIMES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB
AND SOME DYNAMIC LIFT, RETURNS WERE SHOWING UP ON GWX AND NQA
(MEMPHIS) AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME FLURRIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH
THESE RETURNS, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA, HITTING A WALL OF DRY AIR ALOFT. AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OFF
TO THE EAST, MOST CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH DAYBREAK. WITH
MOST OF THE CWA NOW UNDER CLEAR SKIES, IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN OVER AND MOST OBSERVATIONS HAVE PLUMMETED
INTO THE LOW AND MID 20S. A FEW SPOTS WITH CLOUDS HANGING ON
AREN'T COOLING QUITE AS FAST JUST YET, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DROP
ONCE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. AS IS TYPICAL WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING, YOU
CAN GET TEMPERATURES DROP JUST AS MUCH IN THE SOUTH AS YOU WOULD
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TROY AND EUFAULA ARE ALREADY
AT 23 DEGREES, SO UPPER TEENS ARE LIKELY BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND
DONE THERE, ALONG WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE U.S. 80 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN DEMOPOLIS AND SELMA.
WE CAN ALL SAY GOODBYE TO THE HARD FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR AT
LEAST A FEW DAYS AS THE DOMINANT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH RELENTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
COMMENCE DURING THE DAY TODAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTS EASTWARD FROM
BAJA CALIFORNIA WITHIN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. WIDESPREAD,
MOSTLY STRATIFORM LIFT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH LOSES A BIT OF STEAM AND BECOMES VERY
POSITIVELY TILTED IN NATURE. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AROUND MIDDAY
TUESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BEFORE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS REACH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WE COULD
SEE A "HEAT WAVE" FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS SELMA, MONTGOMERY, TROY,
AND EUFAULA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A VERY GOOD
CHANCE OF SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THOSE LOCATIONS WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A KICKER SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS FINALLY PROVIDES ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
CLEAR THE FRONT OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE CWA,
BUT THIS WAVE WON'T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE'VE
RECENTLY DEALT WITH. STILL, OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION THURSDAY MORNING ARE ADVERTISED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 20S NORTHWEST TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK SOUTH OF I-85. WIND
CHILLS COULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ONCE AGAIN, BUT
NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO REACH COLD ADVISORY CRITERIA. AFTER A
CHILLY DAY THURSDAY IN THE 40S, WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM-UP ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ANOTHER ARCTIC OUTBREAK HEADED SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
BUT THIS TIME IS PROGGED TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES. THAT SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE DEEP SOUTH ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THE COLDEST AIR, COOLING TEMPERATURES DOWN
BUT ONLY NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. FOLKS IN THE NORTHEAST
STATES COULD BE DEALING WITH A VERY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WITH
LOTS OF SNOW, POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, AND BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM BY SUNDAY. GUIDANCE
TRENDS WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH FOR FOLKS UP THERE OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
POTENTIAL LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK:
WE HAVE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WHO LOVE WARMER WEATHER: GUIDANCE
SIGNALS ARE CERTAINLY LINING UP AND TRENDING TOWARD A BIG PATTERN
SHIFT OVER THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 9TH AS LONGWAVE
RIDGING SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND A TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
FROM CPC LINES UP WITH THESE SOLUTIONS VERY WELL, AND THE DEEP
SOUTH ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE COUNTRY HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF SEEING
VERY WARM AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES 9 TO 12 DAYS FROM NOW.
THE DAFFODILS AND THOSE EARLY SPROUTING BULBS WILL MOST CERTAINLY
MAKE AN APPEARANCE IF THAT FORECAST HOLDS UP!
56/GDG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR FORECAST. WE HAVE ONE
MORE RAIN FREE DAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/
VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM TO START. FROM 15-18Z WINDS SHOULD PICK UP
AND BE SW-WSW WITH MIXING AT 6-10KTS. WINDS SHOULD GO BACK TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM AFTER SUNSET.
08
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH
MINRH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST
TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST. RH VALUES AND MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH ON AVERAGE. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT NO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 52 27 60 39 / 0 0 50 80
ANNISTON 52 31 61 42 / 0 0 30 90
BIRMINGHAM 53 34 61 40 / 0 0 50 90
TUSCALOOSA 56 33 63 39 / 0 0 60 90
CALERA 55 31 63 41 / 0 0 40 90
AUBURN 52 32 61 48 / 0 0 10 90
MONTGOMERY 56 32 66 49 / 0 0 10 90
TROY 55 31 66 51 / 0 0 0 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...08
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