947
FXUS64 KBMX 021801
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.
- LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AND
MUCH WARMER PATTERN CHANGE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THE "HEAT WAVE" IS BEGINNING, EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE BRIEFLY
INTERRUPTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
SLIDE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL A SECOND SHORTWAVE CAN SLIDE DOWN AND
KICK THE FRONT FURTHER EAST OUT OF OUR DOMAIN. ONLY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS FRONT SO RAIN IS REALLY
THE ONLY IMPACT WE WILL SEE WITH THIS SYSTEM. A RETURN TO THE 50S
AND 60S IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE
INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AND MUCH WARMER PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS
THE U.S. BY THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 9TH. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH
TO OBSERVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS FROM
THE SW THIS AFTERNOON.
16
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE SHOULD STILL SEE RH VALUES
LOW THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEN INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN
ONE-HALF INCH ON AVERAGE. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 26 58 40 47 / 0 70 90 10
ANNISTON 30 59 43 48 / 0 50 100 10
BIRMINGHAM 33 59 41 47 / 0 70 100 10
TUSCALOOSA 32 59 39 47 / 0 80 90 0
CALERA 30 61 42 49 / 0 60 100 10
AUBURN 32 60 48 53 / 0 10 100 40
MONTGOMERY 31 65 49 55 / 0 20 100 30
TROY 31 65 51 57 / 0 10 90 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page