509
FXUS64 KBMX 101103
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
503 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 500 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF DENSE FOG ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT IN TUESDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 9 AM.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, AT LEAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL INTO THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW, WE WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ADVECT INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 10 AM,
WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE THE LOWEST CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY IN THE SOUTH. A DENSE FOG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTH AFTER 3 AM. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OF
LESS SO USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AGAIN
EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70. AGAIN WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE OUR BLENDED
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER IN THE SOUTH. IF IT PERSISTS A LITTLE LONGER THAN 10 AM THEN
THE TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY BE AROUND 70 VERSUS 75.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 9 PM IN THE NORTH AND
PUSH INTO THE BIRMINGHAM METRO JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WILL MOST
LIKELY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE ACTIVITY SLIDES SOUTH. THIS IS
DUE THE LACK OF PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT, THEREFORE THE FRONT WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OR JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
ON FRIDAY, THE LEFT OVER BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS AN
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT AND HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE TO
SLIDE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ON SATURDAY WILL
BE IN OKLAHOMA AND SLIDE EAST INTO ARKANSAS. THE LARGE AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST WILL STALL ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD
FOR A BIT, WHILE THE UPPER LOW MAY SPLIT OVER ARKANSAS. IF THIS
OCCURS, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT ONE LOW WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST AND
EAST OF THE AREA, WHILE A CUT-OFF LOW AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW
WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN PORTIONS IF NOT SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. WHEREAS A FURTHER NORTH LOW WOULD CERTAINLY PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH STRONGER STORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SO
WHILE SOME STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT CONCERNS CONTINUE WITH THE
MODELS, THEY DO AGREE ON A BENEFICIAL RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WE WILL NEE TO CONTINUE TO
KEEP WATCHING THE FINE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM AS WE GET CLOSER IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
AVIATION CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DETERIORATING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS AS LOW LEVEL STATUS AND DENSE FOG SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE VFR
RETURNS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY AT TIMES. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO -RA DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS BY 06Z. MVFR CEILINGS RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
WINDOW.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. MINRHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50-70% RANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL AL. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN AND PERHAPS STORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 53 64 34 / 0 70 60 0
ANNISTON 74 54 65 36 / 0 60 60 0
BIRMINGHAM 73 56 65 39 / 0 60 50 0
TUSCALOOSA 75 55 68 38 / 0 50 30 0
CALERA 73 54 68 38 / 0 60 40 10
AUBURN 73 56 70 41 / 0 40 30 10
MONTGOMERY 76 58 74 46 / 0 30 30 10
TROY 76 58 75 49 / 0 20 30 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-COOSA-
DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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