789
FXUS64 KBMX 111910
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
110 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.
- COOLER BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- VERY HIGH (90-100%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS VERY LOW DUE TO VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO REACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S BEHIND IT. SINCE THE SHORTWAVE
HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA, ONLY A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
IS LOCATED ALONG IT. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CAMS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHERE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RIGHT AROUND -10C, SO THE CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, GETTING DOWN WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF FREEZING IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR
SOUTH. PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES STILL A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. WILL NOTE FIRE DANGER WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED
GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS, THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVENT RISK
OF ANY RAPID SPREAD/RED FLAG CONCERNS.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY:
THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR CALIFORNIA,
AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS DRIER. OVERALL
BEGINNING TO SEE BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ON THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES, WITH TYPICAL AMOUNTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE
MESOSCALE DETAILS. IN GENERAL A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/POTENTIALLY A
QLCS WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, MOVING
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE BY MIDDAY. AS IS TYPICAL SHEAR
IS PLENTIFUL BUT INSTABILITY IS VERY QUESTIONABLE. THE WARM FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER 60S DEW POINTS WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE QLCS MOVES IN. USUALLY THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
IN THESE CASES IS THAT THE CONVECTION OUTRUNS THE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY, AS DEPICTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS
WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COAST GIVEN THE LOWER LATITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE, DISRUPTING THE
NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF INSTABILITY. ULTIMATELY IT'S TOO EARLY TO
KNOW FOR SURE IF JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD IN AHEAD OF THE
LINE (ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE) FOR ANY
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES,
BUT THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WILL ALSO NOTE THAT
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BEHIND THE LINE
WITH THE UPPER LOW. IT'S ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO NOT JUST LOOK AT
CAPE PLOTS IN THIS SITUATION, BUT TO ALSO LOOK AT WHERE THE
CONVECTION IS RELATIVE TO THE CAPE. THOUGH IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE, THEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH
A LOW THREAT OF SMALL HAIL. WHILE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
COULD OCCUR, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT BUT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS SHORTLY, AND THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT
FOR MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHORT DURATION IFR RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO
OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR MODERATE
INTENSITY SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD
FRONT WITH 20FT WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY. THE FRONT HAS TRENDED
STRONGER RESULTING IN DRIER AIR MOVING IN. RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS, RESULTING
IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN AND PERHAPS STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 34 61 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 35 62 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 38 63 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 38 66 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 37 66 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 42 66 41 66 / 10 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 42 67 40 69 / 10 0 0 0
TROY 45 68 41 70 / 30 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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