990
FXUS64 KBMX 122333
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
533 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
- VERY HIGH (90-100%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING, HIGHEST SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME, THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW DUE TO VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON:
AFTER A COOL START TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP NICELY THIS MORNING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. WILL GO BELOW
NBM FOR LOWS TONIGHT BASED ON THIS MORNING'S LOWS, WITH CALM WINDS
AND THE DRY AIR MASS. THE ONLY THING PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. FIRE
DANGER WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH LOW RH
VALUES, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT PREVENTING THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM, THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY
LOOK DRY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN MOST AREAS DUE TO SHORTWAVE
RIDGING, OTHER THAN SOME MORNING VIRGA/MAYBE A SPRINKLE WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REACH TEXAS BY SATURDAY,
WITH GUIDANCE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON IT BECOMING A
CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO ALABAMA BY SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT,
BEGINNING TO OCCLUDE AS IT REACHES ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. A 50KT LLJ
WILL MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY,
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF A STRONGLY FORCED
SQUALL LINE THAT WILL DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST AND MOVE QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME A WARM
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS BARELY REACHING 60F WILL BE TRYING TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE
SQUALL LINE WILL OUT-RUN THE NARROW AXIS OF WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN JUST SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ALTERNATIVE BUT NOT QUITE AS LIKELY
SCENARIO IS THAT THE SQUALL LINE IS NOT QUITE AS STRONGLY FORCED
AND IS A TAD BIT SLOWER, ALLOWING 100-200 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO MAKE
IT INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, RESULTING IN A MARGINAL THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS/A BRIEF TORNADO AS THE STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR
COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAK INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE START TO GET
IN RANGE OF THE CAMS.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL CAUSE CONTINUED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS. INSTABILITY DOES
COME UP IN THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES BUT
SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER BY THEN. IF UPDRAFTS CAN REMAINED SUSTAINED,
SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY DEVELOP,
WITH A LOW BUT NONZERO RISK FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
STRONG/FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF
NEXT WEEK, DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A COUPLE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES/MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAXES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTHWEST ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE LOWS.
MOISTURE APPEARS VERY LIMITED WITH THESE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH E CONUS SURFACE
RIDGING AND OVERALL LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
08
FIRE WEATHER
RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING
IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND PERHAPS STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 33 65 36 67 / 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 35 66 39 69 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 39 67 43 68 / 0 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 38 69 43 72 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 37 68 42 71 / 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 40 67 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 40 70 44 73 / 0 0 0 10
TROY 39 71 44 73 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...08
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