921
FXUS64 KBMX 131130
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND THE
DAYTIME ON SATURDAY.
- VERY HIGH (90-100%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW DUE TO
VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
THIS EVENING, SURFACE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS E CONUS WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE, SEWD TOWARD
THE GULF COAST, AND INTO C FL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IS DIGGING ALONG THE US W COAST WITH RIDGING IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND NW FLOW INTO E CONUS. LOOK FOR COOL
(ALBEIT ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND ONLY
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH RIPPLES IN THE NW FLOW. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
EWD ACROSS W CONUS AND THE ROCKIES NOW THROUGH FRI. BY SAT, IT
SHOULD BE EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO TX WITH ZONAL FLOW INTO
AL. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THE DAY SAT ACROSS C AL.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF STARTING UNTIL SAT NIGHT. THE
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS TX SAT WITH OUR FLOW CHANGING TO SW
BY SAT NIGHT. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL HELP TO USHER A SURFACE LOW
AND FRONT OUT OF KS/OK/N TX TOWARD MS/AL BY SUN MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL BE DURING THE
DAY ON SUN. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS C AL BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE THIS WEEKEND. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL THE UPPER SYSTEM IS
COMPLETELY THROUGH. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A BIG COLD
SURGE BEHIND IT AS THE MAIN ENERGY IS W TO E, BUT IT WILL BRING
DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST ON MONDAY AND ON INTO TUE/WED. WILL LOOK
FOR NW UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON WITH THE FLOW TURNING
ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH UPPER RIDGING
BECOMING ELONGATED ACROSS THE GULF. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
BE PRESENT FOR NEXT WEEK.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON:
AFTER A COOL START TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP NICELY THIS MORNING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. WILL GO BELOW
NBM FOR LOWS TONIGHT BASED ON THIS MORNING'S LOWS, WITH CALM WINDS
AND THE DRY AIR MASS. THE ONLY THING PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. FIRE
DANGER WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH LOW RH
VALUES, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT PREVENTING THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM, THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY
LOOK DRY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN MOST AREAS DUE TO SHORTWAVE
RIDGING, OTHER THAN SOME MORNING VIRGA/MAYBE A SPRINKLE WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REACH TEXAS BY SATURDAY,
WITH GUIDANCE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON IT BECOMING A
CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO ALABAMA BY SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT,
BEGINNING TO OCCLUDE AS IT REACHES ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. A 50KT LLJ
WILL MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY,
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF A STRONGLY FORCED
SQUALL LINE THAT WILL DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST AND MOVE QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME A WARM
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS BARELY REACHING 60F WILL BE TRYING TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE
SQUALL LINE WILL OUT-RUN THE NARROW AXIS OF WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN JUST SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ALTERNATIVE BUT NOT QUITE AS LIKELY
SCENARIO IS THAT THE SQUALL LINE IS NOT QUITE AS STRONGLY FORCED
AND IS A TAD BIT SLOWER, ALLOWING 100-200 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO MAKE
IT INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, RESULTING IN A MARGINAL THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS/A BRIEF TORNADO AS THE STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR
COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAK INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE START TO GET
IN RANGE OF THE CAMS.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL CAUSE CONTINUED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS. INSTABILITY DOES
COME UP IN THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES BUT
SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER BY THEN. IF UPDRAFTS CAN REMAINED SUSTAINED,
SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY DEVELOP,
WITH A LOW BUT NONZERO RISK FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
STRONG/FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF
NEXT WEEK, DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A COUPLE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES/MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAXES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTHWEST ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE LOWS.
MOISTURE APPEARS VERY LIMITED WITH THESE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS CYCLE DESPITE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME. SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST AT 3-6 KTS. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
2-4 KTS. FURTHER INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 4-8 KTS.
05
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP GENERALLY INTO THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 62 35 65 50 / 0 0 0 70
ANNISTON 65 40 66 53 / 0 0 0 70
BIRMINGHAM 65 43 67 55 / 0 0 0 80
TUSCALOOSA 68 44 71 56 / 0 0 10 80
CALERA 67 41 70 54 / 0 0 0 80
AUBURN 66 43 67 54 / 0 0 0 60
MONTGOMERY 69 43 72 56 / 0 0 0 70
TROY 70 44 72 55 / 0 0 0 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...05
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