017
FXUS64 KBMX 131715
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1115 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1110 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND THE
DAYTIME ON SATURDAY.
- VERY HIGH (90-100%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW DUE TO
VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
THIS EVENING, SURFACE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS E CONUS WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE, SEWD TOWARD
THE GULF COAST, AND INTO C FL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IS DIGGING ALONG THE US W COAST WITH RIDGING IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND NW FLOW INTO E CONUS. LOOK FOR COOL
(ALBEIT ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND ONLY
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH RIPPLES IN THE NW FLOW. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
EWD ACROSS W CONUS AND THE ROCKIES NOW THROUGH FRI. BY SAT, IT
SHOULD BE EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO TX WITH ZONAL FLOW INTO
AL. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THE DAY SAT ACROSS C AL.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF STARTING UNTIL SAT NIGHT. THE
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS TX SAT WITH OUR FLOW CHANGING TO SW
BY SAT NIGHT. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL HELP TO USHER A SURFACE LOW
AND FRONT OUT OF KS/OK/N TX TOWARD MS/AL BY SUN MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL BE DURING THE
DAY ON SUN. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS C AL BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE THIS WEEKEND. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL THE UPPER SYSTEM IS
COMPLETELY THROUGH. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A BIG COLD
SURGE BEHIND IT AS THE MAIN ENERGY IS W TO E, BUT IT WILL BRING
DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST ON MONDAY AND ON INTO TUE/WED. WILL LOOK
FOR NW UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON WITH THE FLOW TURNING
ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH UPPER RIDGING
BECOMING ELONGATED ACROSS THE GULF. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
BE PRESENT FOR NEXT WEEK.
08
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
WINDS.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO PERCENT RANGE, RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
ON SATURDAY, BUT RH VALUES WILL STILL BE MAINLY IN THE 25 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. 20FT WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND
7 MPH GUSTING TO 13 MPH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 63 33 65 48 / 0 0 10 70
ANNISTON 65 38 66 50 / 0 0 10 70
BIRMINGHAM 65 43 68 53 / 0 0 10 80
TUSCALOOSA 69 43 71 54 / 0 0 10 80
CALERA 67 42 69 53 / 0 0 10 80
AUBURN 66 43 66 52 / 0 0 10 60
MONTGOMERY 69 42 72 54 / 0 0 10 70
TROY 70 44 71 54 / 0 0 10 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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