569
FXUS64 KBMX 140004
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
604 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 600 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
- A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY MORNING, WHILE A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- AT THIS TIME, THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW WITH THESE
BOTH OF THESE WAVES DUE TO VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST THIS WEEKEND, AS
AVAILABLE CAM RUNS SO FAR MATCH PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. A SHORTWAVE
MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
TOMORROW MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
REACH TEXAS BY SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT
MOVES INTO ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS ON SATURDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING TO OCCLUDE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING WESTWARD TO
THE EAST COAST. A 50KT LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
OF A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE. THIS SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS OVER
THE ARKLATEX SATURDAY EVENING, AND SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
ACROSS ALABAMA MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THIS
SQUALL LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES
ALABAMA, AS IT OUT-RUNS THE NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS
LINGERING WEDGING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT FALLING INTO THE DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WOULD
ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE STABLE AIR MASS WITH SOME IN SITU CAD
EFFECTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S AS THE LINE MOVES
THROUGH, WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME OF OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THIS SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW. MAINLY EXPECT A LINE
OF GUSTY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH MAY
CAUSE SPORADIC WEAK TREES/LIMBS TO FALL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY UNEXPECTED INCREASES IN INSTABILITY.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE, 500MB TEMPS DROP
TO -16C, RESULTING IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL HELP
MAINTAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN THE
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. IF THIS OCCURS, SHEAR WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN
EARLIER, BUT IF UPDRAFTS CAN BECOME SUSTAINED A COUPLE STRONG
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR. THREAT FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM (HAIL/WIND) IN THE AFTERNOON IS NONZERO BUT
ALSO VERY LOW. THIS REDEVELOPMENT IS VERY CONDITIONAL, AND BASED
ON PAST EXPERIENCE I'M MORE THAN A LITTLE SKEPTICAL THAT WE WILL
SEE MUCH DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING RAIN GIVEN
THAT IT'S STILL MID FEBRUARY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
NEXT WEEK, A STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL QUASI-ZONAL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY, FLOODING MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH
MILDER PACIFIC AIR. STRONG FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF WITH A STRONG EML ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS,
WITH AN UPPER AIR PATTERN MORE REMINISCENT OF MID TO LATE MAY.
THIS MAY CAUSE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WILL NOTE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER LOWER PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR FORECAST WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE ESE-SE 5-10KTS WITH MIXING DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
08
FIRE WEATHER
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE, RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
ON SATURDAY, BUT RH VALUES WILL STILL BE MAINLY IN THE 25 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. 20FT WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND
7 MPH GUSTING TO 13 MPH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 33 65 48 65 / 0 10 70 100
ANNISTON 38 66 50 66 / 0 10 70 100
BIRMINGHAM 43 68 53 67 / 0 10 80 100
TUSCALOOSA 43 71 54 68 / 0 10 80 100
CALERA 42 69 53 68 / 0 10 80 100
AUBURN 43 66 52 65 / 0 10 60 100
MONTGOMERY 42 72 54 69 / 0 10 70 100
TROY 44 71 54 69 / 0 10 60 100
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...08
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