020
FXUS64 KBMX 140528
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1128 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1125 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
- A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY MORNING, WHILE A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- AT THIS TIME, THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW WITH THESE
BOTH OF THESE WAVES DUE TO VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
THIS EVENING, SURFACE RIDGING IS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING TO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THERE IS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SEWD FROM IT ACROSS LA, INTO
THE EASTERN GULF, AND INTO S FL. THE LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD SAT INTO SUN ACROSS OK/AR AND INTO N MS BY
SUN MORNING. WHILE THE BOUNDARY MAY MOVE BACK NEWD SOME AS A WARM
FRONT. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MAJOR PROGRESS INTO C AL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS DIGGING OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH WEAK NW FLOW INTO E CONUS. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
THE E ON SAT EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO TX WITH ZONAL FLOW
INTO AL. WHILE OVERALL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE, AND WE
SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SAT, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THE DAY ACROSS C AL.
SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SAT EVENING, BUT THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF STARTING UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT. THE
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS TX SAT WITH OUR FLOW BECOMING SW BY
SAT NIGHT.
THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL HELP TO USHER THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT
TOWARD MS/AL BY SUN MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE WE WILL HAVE
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY AND FORCING WITH THE FRONT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME GUSTS AT TIMES, THE OVERALL INSTABILITY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING FOR SEVERE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON SUN, IN PARTICULAR SUN
MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER WITH OVERALL QPF,
NOW CLOSER TO 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS C AL BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SUN UNTIL THE UPPER SYSTEM IS COMPLETELY THROUGH.
THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A BIG COLD SURGE BEHIND IT AS
THE MAIN ENERGY IS W TO E, BUT IT WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER MONDAY
AND ON THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL LOOK FOR NW UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MON WITH THE FLOW TURNING ZONAL FOR MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMING ELONGATED
ACROSS THE GULF. RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY THU NIGHT AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE PRESENT FOR NEXT
WEEK.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST THIS WEEKEND, AS
AVAILABLE CAM RUNS SO FAR MATCH PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. A SHORTWAVE
MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
TOMORROW MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
REACH TEXAS BY SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT
MOVES INTO ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS ON SATURDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING TO OCCLUDE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING WESTWARD TO
THE EAST COAST. A 50KT LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
OF A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE. THIS SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS OVER
THE ARKLATEX SATURDAY EVENING, AND SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
ACROSS ALABAMA MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THIS
SQUALL LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES
ALABAMA, AS IT OUT-RUNS THE NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS
LINGERING WEDGING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT FALLING INTO THE DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WOULD
ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE STABLE AIR MASS WITH SOME IN SITU CAD
EFFECTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S AS THE LINE MOVES
THROUGH, WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME OF OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THIS SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW. MAINLY EXPECT A LINE
OF GUSTY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH MAY
CAUSE SPORADIC WEAK TREES/LIMBS TO FALL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY UNEXPECTED INCREASES IN INSTABILITY.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE, 500MB TEMPS DROP
TO -16C, RESULTING IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL HELP
MAINTAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN THE
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. IF THIS OCCURS, SHEAR WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN
EARLIER, BUT IF UPDRAFTS CAN BECOME SUSTAINED A COUPLE STRONG
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR. THREAT FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM (HAIL/WIND) IN THE AFTERNOON IS NONZERO BUT
ALSO VERY LOW. THIS REDEVELOPMENT IS VERY CONDITIONAL, AND BASED
ON PAST EXPERIENCE I'M MORE THAN A LITTLE SKEPTICAL THAT WE WILL
SEE MUCH DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING RAIN GIVEN
THAT IT'S STILL MID FEBRUARY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
NEXT WEEK, A STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL QUASI-ZONAL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY, FLOODING MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH
MILDER PACIFIC AIR. STRONG FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF WITH A STRONG EML ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS,
WITH AN UPPER AIR PATTERN MORE REMINISCENT OF MID TO LATE MAY.
THIS MAY CAUSE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WILL NOTE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER LOWER PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS CYCLE. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY, INITIALLY SCATTERED BY LATE MORNING THEN
BECOMING BROKEN AT MOST SITES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOWEST
BASES WEST NEAR TCL. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AT 4-8 KTS.
05
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE TODAY, BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STILL BE MAINLY IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. 20 FOOT
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 35 64 48 66 / 0 0 80 100
ANNISTON 39 64 50 66 / 0 0 70 100
BIRMINGHAM 43 66 53 68 / 0 10 80 100
TUSCALOOSA 44 70 54 69 / 0 10 90 100
CALERA 41 68 52 69 / 0 10 80 100
AUBURN 43 66 52 66 / 0 0 60 100
MONTGOMERY 43 71 54 71 / 0 0 80 100
TROY 43 71 53 71 / 0 0 70 100
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...05
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