125
FXUS64 KBMX 150035
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE FOR
SUNDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS LOCALLY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT, AS A
CLOSED LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO TREK EAST. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WITH
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS LOWER, AS STORMS WILL BE
EXPERIENCING A WEAKENING TREND DURING THIS TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME WILL BE NEARLY VOID OF ANY
INSTABILITY, AIDING IN THE LACK OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, AS THE
LOW ITSELF BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION BY MID-MORNING, A NARROW
CORRIDOR WILL PRESENT ITSELF FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.
THUS, THE SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR
TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY, WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, AND DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS DURING THIS SMALL WINDOW.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
VERY LITTLE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES TO SPEAK OF. BY WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SW, ALLOWING FOR MORE SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WELL, WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY HERE, BUT LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO
HIGHLIGHT ANOTHER DEEP SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS TIME NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN TO BE SEEN,
THIS DEEP SYSTEM WOULD DROP TEMPERATURES WAY BACK DOWN TO A SEASONAL
FEEL.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
ALL TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD. CIGS SHOULD GO TO MVFR
FROM 9-13Z GENERALLY FROM W TO E. IFR-LIFR WILL DEVELOP AS WELL
DURING THE DAY AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE SE 5-10KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, BECOMING S-SW 8-14KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS DURING
THE DAY SUN AS THE SURFACE LOW GETS CLOSER. WINDS WILL TURN W-NW
FOR TCL/BHM/EET TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONT.
SHRA WILL BE PREVALENT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR TS WILL BE DURING THE DAY IN THE S (MGM/AUO) SITES. LOW
CHANCES ELSEWHERE AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
08
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, LEADING TO HIGHER MINRH VALUES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN FACT, IT LOOKS LIKE MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 50% THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK
BACK INTO THE REGION UNDER SUSTAINED SW FLOW. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO
THE FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
REMAINING LITTLE TO NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 48 65 45 69 / 80 100 20 0
ANNISTON 50 66 45 70 / 80 100 30 0
BIRMINGHAM 53 67 47 69 / 90 100 20 0
TUSCALOOSA 54 69 45 71 / 90 90 20 0
CALERA 52 69 45 71 / 90 100 20 0
AUBURN 53 67 50 69 / 80 90 50 0
MONTGOMERY 54 71 51 71 / 90 100 40 0
TROY 53 71 52 70 / 80 100 50 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page