502
FXUS64 KBMX 150533
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1133 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1128 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE FOR
SUNDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS LOCALLY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT, AS A
CLOSED LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO TREK EAST. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WITH
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS LOWER, AS STORMS WILL BE
EXPERIENCING A WEAKENING TREND DURING THIS TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME WILL BE NEARLY VOID OF ANY
INSTABILITY, AIDING IN THE LACK OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, AS THE
LOW ITSELF BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION BY MID-MORNING, A NARROW
CORRIDOR WILL PRESENT ITSELF FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.
THUS, THE SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR
TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY, WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, AND DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS DURING THIS SMALL WINDOW.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
VERY LITTLE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES TO SPEAK OF. BY WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SW, ALLOWING FOR MORE SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WELL, WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY HERE, BUT LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO
HIGHLIGHT ANOTHER DEEP SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS TIME NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN TO BE SEEN,
THIS DEEP SYSTEM WOULD DROP TEMPERATURES WAY BACK DOWN TO A SEASONAL
FEEL.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT ALL TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. SOME TS
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MGM AND AUO TO INCLUDE WITH THE OVERALL
WINDOW FROM AROUND 10Z TO 18Z. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS FROM 12-24 KT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE SHOWER CHANCES
LINGER AFTER THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
MIDDAY.
05
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, LEADING TO HIGHER MINRH VALUES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN FACT, IT LOOKS LIKE MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 50% THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK
BACK INTO THE REGION UNDER SUSTAINED SW FLOW. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO
THE FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
REMAINING LITTLE TO NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 47 65 44 69 / 80 100 20 0
ANNISTON 50 66 44 70 / 80 100 20 0
BIRMINGHAM 53 66 47 69 / 90 100 20 0
TUSCALOOSA 54 68 46 70 / 90 90 10 0
CALERA 51 69 45 71 / 90 100 20 0
AUBURN 52 67 48 69 / 80 90 30 0
MONTGOMERY 54 71 50 69 / 90 100 30 0
TROY 53 72 51 70 / 80 100 30 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page