510
FXUS64 KBMX 152319
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
519 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 514 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
SOME LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT, AS THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD FULLY EXIST THE REGION CLOSER TO
9 PM. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS LOW,
WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE UPPER-60S AND LOW-70S INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS WHEN THE PATTERN WILL REALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT, WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT STARTING TO TAKE A SW DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REALLY BEGIN TO CLIMB, AS HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S
IN MANY LOCATIONS INTO FRIDAY.
DURING THIS SAME TIME, A SHALLOW 500MB TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE MIDWEST, WITH A MUCH DEEPER LOW LINGER OVER THE NORTH GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRAGGING A WEEK COLD FRONT WITH IS,
STRETCHING ALL THE WAY TO CENTRAL TEXAS. DUE TO THE LENGTH OF THIS
COLD FRONT, AND THE LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, IT WILL LIKELY
STALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FROM HERE, IT WILL LIKELY BECOME FAR MORE DIFFUSE, ACTING
MERELY AS A CATALYST FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH DEEPER COLD FRONT COULD
WORK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO A MORE SEASONABLE FEEL.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
A FEW SITES ACROSS CENTRAL AL HAVE BEEN OBSERVING SCT TO FEW
CLOUDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD BECOME MORE OVC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE HIGHLIGHTS THIS BROAD STRATUS DECK FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREFORE, I HAVE
MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z FOR MOST SITES. AFTER
15Z, CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH MGM AND
AUO REMAINING MVFR THROUGH ROUGHLY 18Z.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% FOR MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS,
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. HOWEVER, MINRH
VALUES MAY DROP CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND, AS ANOTHER DEEP SYSTEM
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST. UNTIL WE GET A BETTER PICTURE OF
THAT, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 43 68 42 70 / 20 0 0 0
ANNISTON 44 69 43 70 / 20 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 46 68 47 70 / 20 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 46 69 45 72 / 10 0 0 0
CALERA 45 69 44 72 / 20 0 0 0
AUBURN 49 69 47 70 / 20 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 51 69 46 71 / 20 0 0 0
TROY 51 69 47 70 / 20 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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