734
FXUS64 KBMX 161728
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1128 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1123 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGING BEGINS TO FLATTEN WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE
MID-MS AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WE COULD SEE SOME
LOWER RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND WE SEE SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT. FOR NOW, THOSE RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW (20-
30%). AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE'S QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY
IN THE TIMING WITH SOME INDICATIONS IT COULD MOVE FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL AL FRIDAY AND STALLS OUT AGAIN, LEADING TO CONTINUED HIGH
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS IT STALLED TO
OUR NORTH BEFORE PUSHING IT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY, WHICH MAKES
THE WINDOW FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MUCH NARROWER. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES 40-60% FRIDAY, THEN 40-50% THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FOR NOW. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN SOLUTIONS FOR
WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
EQUALLY AS UNCERTAIN. THE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WHETHER THAT'S SUNDAY OR MONDAY AT THIS POINT,
THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE MUCH COLDER, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
MORE TYPICAL FEBRUARY DIURNAL RANGES.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BETWEEN 40-50%, WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. EXPECT GENERAL
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT A "STEADY STATE" THIS WEEK, WITH FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS REMAINING LITTLE TO NONE THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 40 69 52 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 71 43 70 52 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 70 47 69 55 / 0 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 72 46 72 55 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 72 43 72 53 / 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 70 46 69 52 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 70 43 72 53 / 0 0 0 10
TROY 69 45 72 52 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION.../44/
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