836
FXUS64 KBMX 162308
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
508 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 506 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
THE OVERALL FORECAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE, AS MOST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DICTATED BY A SERIES OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE'S MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES. A SLIGHT UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, ALLOWING FOR
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE
WILL BREAK DOWN INTO WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS TO WARM
UP EVEN MORE UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
PUSHING THE MID-70S, WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY REACHING THE LOW-80S
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
BEGINNING HERE, THE FIRST OF MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS WILL WORK INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS OFF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, LIKELY TAKING SHAPE
SOMEWHERE NEAR NE/SD/MN. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BE DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT, WITH TEMPERATURE CHANCES EXPECTED ALL THE
WAY DOWN TO CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER, THIS LOW PRESSURE IS NOT ALL
THAT DEEP, AND LACKS A LOT OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. SO THIS FIRST
SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO WASH OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
STALLING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. WHERE THIS COLD
FRONT STALLS IS TO BE DETERMINED; THIS TIME YESTERDAY IT LOOKED
TO STALL OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN, BUT TODAY IT'S FARTHER
EAST. A MORE WESTERN STALL WOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES, WHERE AN EASTERN STALL WOULD RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED
RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY START TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE, RETROGRADING
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HERE IS WHERE THE SECOND LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OFF OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS LOW
PRESSURE DOES LOOK TO DEEPEN, AND GIVEN ITS TRAJECTORY CLOSER TO
COLORADO, IT SHOULD END UP PUSHING THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. FROM HERE, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DROP BACK
DOWN TO A MUCH MORE SEASONAL FEEL, IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF CENTRAL AL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEDGE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS, ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS WEST ALABAMA, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS FROM ROUGHLY
09Z THROUGH 18Z MAINLY FOR TCL. OTHER SITE SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BETWEEN 40-50%, WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. EXPECT GENERAL
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT A "STEADY STATE" THIS WEEK, WITH FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS REMAINING LITTLE TO NONE THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 40 69 52 72 / 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 43 70 52 72 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 47 69 55 73 / 0 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 46 72 55 75 / 0 0 10 10
CALERA 43 72 53 75 / 0 0 10 10
AUBURN 46 69 52 72 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 43 72 53 76 / 0 0 10 20
TROY 45 72 52 74 / 0 0 10 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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