848
FXUS64 KBMX 170313
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
913 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 909 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 909 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THERE'S NOT REALLY ANYTHING
IMPACTFUL WEATHER WISE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OTHER THAN THE WARMING
TREND IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN WEDNESDAY WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW, EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT.
THE MAIN STORY SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING IS THE DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT SETS UP AROUND THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK. OUT OF THIS TROUGH, SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE HAVE SHOWN TO
HAVE LITTLE PREDICTABILITY FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAS SHOWN THE MOST CONSISTENCY SO
FAR, EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-MS AND OHIO VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS
HAVE SHOWN THE FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CENTRAL AL AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OCCLUDES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. BEYOND
THAT, THERE'S VERY HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE SUBSEQUENT PATTERN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
MAIN SCENARIOS THAT APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PLAYING OUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS - FIRST, AT ABOUT A 40-50%
CHANCE, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND PUSHING THE BOUNDARY OUT OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SECOND, AT AROUND A 30% CHANCE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM RIDES ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY, LIFTING IT NORTHWARD
SLIGHTLY BEFORE PUSHING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AL AND WOULD BEAR WATCHING MORE CLOSELY. BECAUSE THERE'S
BEEN SUCH HIGH VARIABILITY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AND
ALL THE ASSOCIATED SYSTEMS, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY BROAD AT 40-60%
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. I
SUSPECT WE'LL SEE HIGHER PROBABILITIES START WORKING INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MORE NARROW TIME PERIODS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THE TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE COOLER
(MORE SEASONABLE FOR FEBRUARY) COMPARED TO THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY LINGERING IN TERMS OF THE TROUGH PLACEMENT, GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN BOTH THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST HAS LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF CENTRAL AL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEDGE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS, ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS WEST ALABAMA, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS FROM ROUGHLY
09Z THROUGH 18Z MAINLY FOR TCL. OTHER SITE SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
WE SHOULD SEE MINRHS PERSIST IN THE 40-50+% RANGE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS NOT
COMING UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 41 70 52 71 / 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 44 71 52 73 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 48 70 55 73 / 0 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 47 71 54 75 / 0 0 10 0
CALERA 46 72 52 75 / 0 0 10 10
AUBURN 46 69 53 71 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 45 72 52 76 / 0 0 0 10
TROY 45 72 52 74 / 0 0 0 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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