531
FXUS64 KBMX 172328
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
528 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 522 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT, TEMPS ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS
HAVE BEEN NUDGED DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS UNFOLDING WITH HIGH TEMPS
REACHING THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WE SAW
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST
HREF PROBS ARE NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT FOG AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE OF VIS LESS THAN 1 MILE. WITH THAT SAID,
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AS THE LATEST NAM12
AND RAP13 ARE HINTING AT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DOWN TO 5-
10MB ALONG WITH NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE RISE
THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT. THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND A FEW PULSES OF H85-H7 ENERGY
WILL WARRANT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, OUR THINKING REGARDING OUR NEXT SYSTEM HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH WITH THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE.
95/CASTILLO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 909 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THERE'S NOT REALLY ANYTHING
IMPACTFUL WEATHER WISE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OTHER THAN THE WARMING
TREND IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN WEDNESDAY WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW, EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT.
THE MAIN STORY SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING IS THE DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT SETS UP AROUND THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK. OUT OF THIS TROUGH, SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE HAVE SHOWN TO
HAVE LITTLE PREDICTABILITY FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAS SHOWN THE MOST CONSISTENCY SO
FAR, EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-MS AND OHIO VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS
HAVE SHOWN THE FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CENTRAL AL AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OCCLUDES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. BEYOND
THAT, THERE'S VERY HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE SUBSEQUENT PATTERN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
MAIN SCENARIOS THAT APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PLAYING OUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS - FIRST, AT ABOUT A 40-50%
CHANCE, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND PUSHING THE BOUNDARY OUT OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SECOND, AT AROUND A 30% CHANCE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM RIDES ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY, LIFTING IT NORTHWARD
SLIGHTLY BEFORE PUSHING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AL AND WOULD BEAR WATCHING MORE CLOSELY. BECAUSE THERE'S
BEEN SUCH HIGH VARIABILITY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AND
ALL THE ASSOCIATED SYSTEMS, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY BROAD AT 40-60%
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. I
SUSPECT WE'LL SEE HIGHER PROBABILITIES START WORKING INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MORE NARROW TIME PERIODS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THE TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE COOLER
(MORE SEASONABLE FOR FEBRUARY) COMPARED TO THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY LINGERING IN TERMS OF THE TROUGH PLACEMENT, GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN BOTH THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST HAS LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING BEFORE LOWER CEILINGS BEGIN TO BUILD IN GENERALLY AFTER
07Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING IFR FROM ROUGHLY 10Z TO 15Z. THERE'S A 30% CHANCE THAT
IFR CIGS MOVE IN QUICKER, BUT WE'LL MONITOR THAT AS THE EVENING
EVOLVES. CEILINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO LIFT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW,
BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 15Z AND THEN TO VFR BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
WE SHOULD SEE MINRHS PERSIST IN THE 40-50+% RANGE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS NOT
COMING UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 52 70 58 77 / 10 20 10 20
ANNISTON 52 71 58 77 / 0 20 10 20
BIRMINGHAM 55 72 60 78 / 10 20 10 20
TUSCALOOSA 54 74 59 79 / 20 20 10 20
CALERA 52 74 58 79 / 10 20 10 20
AUBURN 53 71 59 77 / 0 20 20 30
MONTGOMERY 52 75 59 82 / 0 20 20 30
TROY 52 73 59 82 / 0 10 30 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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