546
FXUS64 KBMX 191150
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
550 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 541 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- THERE IS A LOW (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING REVEALS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH PREPARES TO EJECT OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT CAN BE ANALYZED PARKED ACROSS TEXAS AND
ARKANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS AS IT
HINTS AT A FEW POCKETS OF CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DOWN TO THE
5-10MB RANGE THROUGH SUNRISE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP LIKELY
WON'T LAST TOO LONG PAST SUNRISE AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO
PICK UP. WHILE CHANCES ARE LOW, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS INCREASED
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINES WITH SEVERAL H85-H7 IMPULSES THAT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BEGINS TO HEAD OUR WAY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP AS WE CLOSE OUT
THE WORK WEEK AS THIS BOUNDARY RUNS INTO A HEALTHY PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE CWA AND
LINGERS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, WE COULD SEE A
FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AXIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED. WITH THAT SAID, OUR WARM CLOUD DEPTH
DOESN'T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE SO WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. OVERALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1" CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LASTLY, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A CORRIDOR
OF CAPE VALUES FROM 400-700 J/KG SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, WE WILL BE LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT
FAR SOUTH.
BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A NUDGE TO
PUSH THE STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA IS PRODUCING LOW, MVFR
CEILINGS, AND WIDELY ISOLATED POCKETS OF DZ. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE
BY MIDDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES ENHANCED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM AND FRONT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, BUT GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE A
TOUCH. -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE
DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE. LOW CEILINGS WILL ALSO REDEVELOP
AFTER 06Z WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASED MOISTURE ON THURSDAY WILL HELP KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN THE
50-60% RANGE. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FRIDAY. AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE STATE, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MIN RHS ON FRIDAY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR
30% ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. AT THIS TIME, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT ENOUGH TO NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RHS REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 50-70% RANGE ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE. MIN RH VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 77 58 75 52 / 20 80 20 70
ANNISTON 78 60 75 56 / 20 70 40 70
BIRMINGHAM 77 60 75 57 / 20 70 30 80
TUSCALOOSA 80 60 75 57 / 10 60 20 80
CALERA 79 60 76 58 / 20 70 30 80
AUBURN 78 65 76 63 / 30 60 60 70
MONTGOMERY 81 65 78 64 / 10 60 60 70
TROY 81 65 80 64 / 20 50 70 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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