622
FXUS64 KBMX 201122
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
522 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 516 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- THERE IS A LOW (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON SATURDAY. QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
JUST A QUICK UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE, THE MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD.
95/CASTILLO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS HAVE SHOWN UP ON THE KBMX RADAR THIS EVENING AS
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY OUT TO OUR WEST STRETCHING TEXAS UP
INTO LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, A SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
DRAGGING A THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNRISE. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RAMP UP, GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
STATE. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE CWA AND LINGERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR 2
POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
1) FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SPC HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR THIS
PERIOD. A PASSING H85-H7 VORT MAX COMBINED WITH A CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE
FROM 500-700 J/KG AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED HAIL THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
2) SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) SHIFTS SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. MAIN THREATS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, SRH VALUES DO A
SUPPORT A LOW TORNADO THREAT.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY CHILLY
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
ARE ALSO EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE RAIN EXITS
THIS MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CIGS BEGIN TO DROP AGAIN TONIGHT AROUND
06Z TO MVFR, THEN TO IFR FOR MGM AND AUO TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE STATE, MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MIN RHS ON
FRIDAY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR 30% ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. AT
THIS TIME, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO NEGATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. RHS REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50-70% RANGE ON
SATURDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE. MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO
THE 20-30% RANGE DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 72 50 69 34 / 20 80 50 20
ANNISTON 73 53 69 36 / 30 80 60 30
BIRMINGHAM 73 54 69 37 / 20 80 50 20
TUSCALOOSA 73 54 72 38 / 20 80 50 20
CALERA 74 55 72 37 / 30 80 60 30
AUBURN 74 64 73 43 / 60 70 90 50
MONTGOMERY 76 63 76 42 / 60 60 90 50
TROY 78 64 77 44 / 60 60 90 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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