473
FXUS64 KBMX 210528
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1128 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1123 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION, WITH ENOUGH TIME IN BETWEEN TO ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF
WARM UPS AND COOL DOWNS. A FAR MORE TYPICAL "SPRING TIME" PATTERN,
WITH A TOUCH OF WINTER TEMPERATURES REMAINING.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) REMAINS IN OUR FAR SE ZONES FOR THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, AS THE FIRST FRONT IN THE FORECAST
BEGINS TO STALL. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, INSTABILITY VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB, AND SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. A VERY SMALL TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS,
BUT THE WIND PROFILES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY DEFINITELY FAVOR
THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT'S FINAL SURGE
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY RANGING IN THE
UPPER-40S AND LOW-50S.
A SECONDARY PERTURBATION WILL WORK IN BEGIN THE UPPER-LOW PRESSURE
MONDAY MORNING, DROPPING AFTERNOON HIGHS EVEN MORE, WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW-AVERAGE INTO WEDNESDAY. HERE,
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN TO OUR EAST, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN TO
THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND, BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN WITH IT ONCE AGAIN.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS
PERIOD. WE INITIALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES, BUT THIS
SHOULD CHANGE AS MVFR CIGS BUILD IN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RAIN. I'VE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR TSRA AT BHM,
EET, AND TCL WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA AT MGM AND AUO. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR FOR MOST SITES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR AT BHM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AUO COULD SEE IFR FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING,
BUT THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG THAT LASTS WITH THE RAIN
MOVING IN. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50% FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY,
BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. HERE, THEY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID-20 TO 30% RANGE, BEFORE SLIGHTLY REBOUNDING
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL,
LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE SHORTER DRYING PERIOD, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 49 69 32 48 / 80 40 30 0
ANNISTON 52 70 34 49 / 80 60 40 0
BIRMINGHAM 53 70 35 49 / 80 40 30 0
TUSCALOOSA 53 73 35 51 / 70 40 30 0
CALERA 53 73 35 51 / 80 60 30 0
AUBURN 62 73 40 51 / 70 80 60 0
MONTGOMERY 63 76 40 54 / 70 80 50 0
TROY 65 78 41 54 / 60 70 60 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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