763
FXUS64 KBMX 211859
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1259 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1255 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO THE DAY
ON TUESDAY WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR SOME ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY MORNING AND
ALL OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
SATELLITE IS INDICATING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WITH THE FRONT STILL LINGERING NEARBY. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
IS PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF C AL WITH SW UPPER FLOW REMAINING UNTIL
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ERN CONUS TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WATCHING FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTORMS WITH HAIL AND WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE USHERED OUT FROM NW TO SE
BEFORE THE NIGHT'S END. THIS WILL BE DUE TO MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA ASSISTED BY THE NW FLOW THAT WILL
BECOME PREVALENT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EWD TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ATTM, WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY AND CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE WINTER
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. NRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO AL INTO MONDAY AS A
LARGE RIDGE SINKS SWD OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THE
SURFACE RIDGE CENTER WILL PUSH SE TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH BY EARLY
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR BELOW NORMAL COLD TEMPS TO REMAIN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EWD AND
MAKE ITS WAY TO FL AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WED. THIS WILL
ALLOW SRLY ONSHORE FLOW INTO AL TO RETURN WED AND A RETURN TO
MORE MILD TEMPERATURES. ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK STARTING WED NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING THU. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION, WITH ENOUGH TIME IN BETWEEN TO ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF
WARM UPS AND COOL DOWNS. A FAR MORE TYPICAL "SPRING TIME" PATTERN,
WITH A TOUCH OF WINTER TEMPERATURES REMAINING.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) REMAINS IN OUR FAR SE ZONES FOR THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, AS THE FIRST FRONT IN THE FORECAST
BEGINS TO STALL. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, INSTABILITY VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB, AND SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. A VERY SMALL TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS,
BUT THE WIND PROFILES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY DEFINITELY FAVOR
THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT'S FINAL SURGE
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY RANGING IN THE
UPPER-40S AND LOW-50S.
A SECONDARY PERTURBATION WILL WORK IN BEGIN THE UPPER-LOW PRESSURE
MONDAY MORNING, DROPPING AFTERNOON HIGHS EVEN MORE, WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW-AVERAGE INTO WEDNESDAY. HERE,
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN TO OUR EAST, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN TO
THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND, BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN WITH IT ONCE AGAIN.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
LIFR TO IFR CIGS ARE PRESENT IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA
NEAREST TO THE PRECIP (MGM/AUO). SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES
OFF/ON THROUGH 6Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, BUT WITH A SHORT DURATION AS MVFR CIGS
RETURN FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
~3-9Z. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
08
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50% FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND MIN RHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20 TO 30% RANGE. TUESDAY
WILL HAVE VERY LOW MIN RHS IN THE 20S PERCENT RANGE AS WELL, BUT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 31 47 22 / 10 20 0 0
ANNISTON 68 34 49 24 / 20 20 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 70 35 49 25 / 10 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 73 35 51 26 / 10 10 0 0
CALERA 69 35 51 25 / 20 20 0 0
AUBURN 71 40 51 27 / 90 40 0 0
MONTGOMERY 74 39 52 27 / 90 40 0 0
TROY 76 41 54 28 / 90 60 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/44/
AVIATION...08
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