064
FXUS64 KBMX 212318
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
518 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 514 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
SATELLITE IS INDICATING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WITH THE FRONT STILL LINGERING NEARBY. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
IS PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF C AL WITH SW UPPER FLOW REMAINING UNTIL
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ERN CONUS TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WATCHING FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTORMS WITH HAIL AND WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE USHERED OUT FROM NW TO SE
BEFORE THE NIGHT'S END. THIS WILL BE DUE TO MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA ASSISTED BY THE NW FLOW THAT WILL
BECOME PREVALENT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EWD TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ATTM, WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY AND CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE WINTER
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. NRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO AL INTO MONDAY AS A
LARGE RIDGE SINKS SWD OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THE
SURFACE RIDGE CENTER WILL PUSH SE TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH BY EARLY
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR BELOW NORMAL COLD TEMPS TO REMAIN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EWD AND
MAKE ITS WAY TO FL AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WED. THIS WILL
ALLOW SRLY ONSHORE FLOW INTO AL TO RETURN WED AND A RETURN TO
MORE MILD TEMPERATURES. ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK STARTING WED NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING THU. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION, WITH ENOUGH TIME IN BETWEEN TO ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF
WARM UPS AND COOL DOWNS. A FAR MORE TYPICAL "SPRING TIME" PATTERN,
WITH A TOUCH OF WINTER TEMPERATURES REMAINING.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) REMAINS IN OUR FAR SE ZONES FOR THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, AS THE FIRST FRONT IN THE FORECAST
BEGINS TO STALL. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, INSTABILITY VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB, AND SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. A VERY SMALL TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS,
BUT THE WIND PROFILES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY DEFINITELY FAVOR
THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT'S FINAL SURGE
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY RANGING IN THE
UPPER-40S AND LOW-50S.
A SECONDARY PERTURBATION WILL WORK IN BEGIN THE UPPER-LOW PRESSURE
MONDAY MORNING, DROPPING AFTERNOON HIGHS EVEN MORE, WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW-AVERAGE INTO WEDNESDAY. HERE,
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN TO OUR EAST, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN TO
THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND, BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN WITH IT ONCE AGAIN.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD, GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24-HOURS.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50% FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND MIN RHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20 TO 30% RANGE. TUESDAY
WILL HAVE VERY LOW MIN RHS IN THE 20S PERCENT RANGE AS WELL, BUT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 31 47 22 40 / 20 0 0 0
ANNISTON 34 49 24 41 / 20 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 35 49 25 41 / 10 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 35 51 26 44 / 10 0 0 0
CALERA 35 51 25 43 / 20 0 0 0
AUBURN 40 51 27 44 / 40 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 39 52 27 46 / 40 0 0 0
TROY 41 54 28 46 / 60 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/44/
AVIATION.../44/
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page