438
FXUS64 KBMX 220520
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1120 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1113 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM THIS EVENING, AS WINDS
GUST UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THEN.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEW WORKWEEK, AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS INTO THE REGION
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND
BY WEDNESDAY, AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
JUST OFF TO OUR SE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
LOWER MIDWEST. THIS LOW WILL BE PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH IT, WITH MORE ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION. HERE, GUIDANCE STARTS TO SPLIT
ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT THE GENERAL IDEA
IS THAT IT SHOULD WORK THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND.
ONCE THIS HAPPENS, TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY DROP BACK DOWN TO A
MORE SEASONABLE FEEL.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES AS DRY AIR
MOVES IN.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SETTLING IN THE MID-
20 AND 30% RANGE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY, WHICH WILL
CERTAINLY POSE AN ISSUE IF ANY SMALL FIRES MANAGE TO SPARK. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH MINRH VALUES
REMAINING IN THE 20-30% RANGE INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY, WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 31 46 21 41 / 20 0 0 0
ANNISTON 35 48 23 42 / 20 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 35 48 24 42 / 20 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 36 50 26 44 / 20 0 0 0
CALERA 35 50 24 44 / 20 0 0 0
AUBURN 40 50 26 44 / 50 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 39 53 27 46 / 50 0 0 0
TROY 41 53 28 46 / 70 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...25/OWEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page