230
FXUS64 KBMX 221124
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
524 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 522 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM THIS EVENING, AS WINDS
GUST UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THEN.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEW WORKWEEK, AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS INTO THE REGION
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND
BY WEDNESDAY, AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
JUST OFF TO OUR SE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
LOWER MIDWEST. THIS LOW WILL BE PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH IT, WITH MORE ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION. HERE, GUIDANCE STARTS TO SPLIT
ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT THE GENERAL IDEA
IS THAT IT SHOULD WORK THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND.
ONCE THIS HAPPENS, TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY DROP BACK DOWN TO A
MORE SEASONABLE FEEL.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KTS. I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SITES
GUSTING TO NEAR 30KTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WOULD BE
PREDOMINANT LONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SETTLING IN THE MID-
20 AND 30% RANGE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY, WHICH WILL
CERTAINLY POSE AN ISSUE IF ANY SMALL FIRES MANAGE TO SPARK. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH MINRH VALUES
REMAINING IN THE 20-30% RANGE INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY, WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 46 21 41 18 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 48 23 42 21 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 48 24 42 23 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 50 26 44 23 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 50 24 44 22 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 50 26 44 26 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 53 27 46 23 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 53 28 46 23 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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