140
FXUS64 KBMX 231119
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
519 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 518 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY, LIKELY FALLING
JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW AVERAGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS STIFF
NORTH WINDS KEEP THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FLOWING INTO THE REGION. THE
"PEAK" OF THIS SHORT-LIVED COLD BLAST WILL BE TOMORROW NIGHT, WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOKS TO DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER TEENS NORTH,
AND LOW-20S SOUTH. THANKFULLY, WINDS WILL BE CALM DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, SO APPARENTT'S WON'T BE ANY LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO CLIMB BY THE
WEDNESDAY, AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SW UNDER THE OUTER
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GREATLY
INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. HERE, A SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY GET
CAUGHT UP IN A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL SHOOT
LIKE A CANNON INTO THE MIDWEST, BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SOMETIME AROUND FRIDAY. SOME ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WILL OCCUR BEFORE SATURDAY.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 20KTS THROUGH 00Z.
AFTER 00Z, WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM AFTER 06Z.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW TODAY, RANGING BETWEEN 25-35% IN
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE STRONG TODAY, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH, AND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH LIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE DRYING PATTERN, MINRH VALUES MAY EVEN BE LOWER
TOMORROW, BUT THEY SHOULD START TO REBOUND INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY, AND SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 40 18 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 41 21 54 37 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 41 23 54 40 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 44 23 55 40 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 44 23 55 38 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 44 26 53 38 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 45 23 56 37 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 46 23 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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