647
FXUS64 KBMX 240552
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1152 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1148 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
ONE MORE DAY OF COOLER WEATHER REMAINS IN STORE FOR US TODAY, AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SW ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO
TAKE SHAPE OFF TO OUR SE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
START WORKING IN THE AREA.
THE FIRST OF THIS RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED, AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
GREATLY INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING, AS THE MAIN LINE BEGINS
TO WORK IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE VERY
FORCED, AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY,
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONG STORM OR TWO. SINCE THERE ARE
CURRENTLY TIMING DISCREPANCIES IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THIS LINE
OF STORMS, THE OVERALL SCOPE OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
ANY SLIGHT UPTICK IN VALUES WOULD AID IN THE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, WITH OUTLOOK POTENTIAL FROM THE SPC
REMAINING ON THE TABLE.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-7 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
EVEN WITH THE LOW MINRH VALUES TODAY, MINRH VALUES ON TUESDAY COULD
BE EVEN LOWER GIVEN ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY AIR. THANKFULLY, HIGH WINDS
WON'T BE A FACTOR TODAY, AND A RED FLAG WARNING WON'T BE NEEDED.
THIS DRY SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS MINRH VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL CLIMB INTO WEDNESDAY. HERE, MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE 0.5 TO 1
INCH OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MINRH VALUES DROPPING ONCE
MORE INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITION, MINOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES DROPPING
THOSE DOWN TO LITTLE TO NONE BY FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 19 53 36 63 / 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 21 53 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 23 53 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 24 55 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 22 55 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 26 53 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 24 56 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 24 56 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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