771
FXUS64 KBMX 031128
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
528 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
- TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN TYPICAL FOR EARLY
MARCH WITH HIGHS AND LOWS AS MUCH AS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FROM THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
OUR CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURE IS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS C AL ATTM
WITH CLOUDS IN ALL DIRECTIONS AROUND US. THAT WILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY WAY OF STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE S PART OF AL AND FROM THE
E FROM GA. TO OUR N, WE HAVE A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXCEPT FOR
A LITTLE WEDGE THAT HAS DIPPED INTO THE NE COUNTIES. UNFORTUNATELY,
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PULL BACK TO THE NWD ON TUE WITH C
AL STAYING IN THE WARM, WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BUT STILL RAIN FREE
AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WE HAVE
A FLAT RIDGE ACROSS MEXICO AND EWD ACROSS INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL
CHANGE AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS AS A STRONGER LOW DIGS IN THE WRN US. THIS WILL PUSH
OUR UPPER RIDGE TO OVER FL AND INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC TO CREATE SW
UPPER FLOW INTO AL BY THU. WE SHOULD HAVE A FEW RIPPLES TRAVERSING
AROUND THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS BY THU AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FOR FRI AFTERNOON.
OVERALL MOISTURE ACROSS AL CONTINUES TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS THE W COAST OF THE US AND EJECT OUT
BITS OF ENERGY INTO THE FLOW INTO AL TO HELP GENERATE OFF/ON
CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING REVEALS A SHORTWAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN DRIVING A LARGE BATCH OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AL AND TN. WEAK RIDGING AND DRY AIR IN PLACE
WILL KEEP US DRY FOR THE MOST PART. WITH THAT SAID, WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A ROGUE SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE TO OVERCOME A LARGE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS SO WOULD EXPECT ANY
RETURNS ON THE KBMX TO BE VIRGA INITIALLY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OPTED TO NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE WEDGE BEGINS TO WORK
IN. WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR SETUP ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK
TO BE AS STRONG. OTHERWISE, WE WILL ADD ON A FEW DEGREES EVERY
DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN JEOPARDY
THROUGH THE WEEK (SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS).
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE THIS WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STOUT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WHILE PULLING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION. AT
THIS TIME, THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH FORCING AVAILABLE AT
THE SURFACE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR NORTH.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO CLOSE IN ON
OUR TAF SITES WITH TCL AND AUO THE FIRST AFFECTED. EXPECT THE LOW
CEILINGS TO SLOWLY MAKE IT TO THE REMAINING SITES WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, BUT CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT ALL DAY, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 17-18Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AT 5-10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-18 KTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN FREE BUT NOT QUITE AS DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH MIN RHS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO 40-50% RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW PROBABILITY
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
MARCH 4:
KBHM: 84/1976
KEET: 84/2022
KTCL: 83/1976
KMGM: 85/2022
MARCH 5:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 83/2022
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1974
KMGM: 85/1989
MARCH 6:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 81/2023
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1974
KMGM: 86/2022
MARCH 7:
KBHM: 84/1956
KEET: 83/2023
KANB: 85/1974
KTCL: 85/2023
KMGM: 87/2023
MARCH 8:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 81/2000
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1992
KMGM: 84/1951
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 52 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 74 52 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 76 56 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 80 57 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 77 54 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 74 54 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 78 54 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 77 53 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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