434
FXUS64 KBMX 040535
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1135 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1127 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING FORECAST.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
FROM THURSDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
OUR CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURE IS INDICATING SOME SPOTTY LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF C AL AS WELL AS SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF AL. THERE ARE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS S MS AND OVER GA. THE AREA OVER MS IS EXPECTED
TO EXPAND N AND EWD WITH SOME COVERAGE INTO THE FAR WRN C AL
COUNTIES TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IN GA SHOULD ALSO EXPAND WWD INTO
THE FAR ERN PARTS OF C AL. SOME AREAS OF FOG MAY OCCUR IN THE E
WITH THIS LOW STRATUS TOWARD SUNRISE, BUT MAY ONLY END UP LASTING
AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE WE START GETTING SUFFICIENT MIXING.
SRLY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE PRESENT FOR THE ENTIRE
SEVEN DAY FORECAST WITH WARM, WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR MOST.
HOWEVER, WE SHOULD STILL HAVE A RAIN FREE AIRMASS FOR AT LEAST
ONE MORE DAY FOR WED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS NOW INTO THU AS A
STRONGER LOW DIGS SWD ACROSS THE WRN US. THIS WILL PUSH OUR UPPER
GULF RIDGE TO OVER FL AND INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC TO CREATE SW UPPER
FLOW INTO AL BY THU. WE SHOULD HAVE A FEW RIPPLES TRAVERSING
AROUND THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF A
SHOWER/TSTORM BY THU AFTERNOON IN THE SE COUNTIES AND AGAIN FOR
FRI AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR ALL. OVERALL
MOISTURE ACROSS AL CONTINUES TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS THE W COAST OF THE US BECOMING A CLOSED LOW
JUST OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUE, THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EWD INTO AZ AND THE WRN HALF OF
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT OUT BITS OF ENERGY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE SW FLOW INTO AL TO HELP GENERATE OFF/ON CONVECTION
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ENHANCED WITH
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
WE'LL REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS A WEDGE FRONT IS
STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL AL. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING FRIDAY. LIKE THE LAST
FEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THIS ONE IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO SLOW AND STALL
ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING TO PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK EXPANDING
NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND DEVELOPING FOG MOVING
INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL AL, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR BOTH THE
ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FOG TO
REACH AUO BY 10-11Z WITH IFR/LIFR EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS
THEREAFTER UNTIL THE FOG MIXES OUT. LOW CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
JUST WEST OF TCL, BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS IN CASE
AMENDMENTS ARE NEEDED. PROBABILITIES FOR AVIATION IMPACTS AT THE
REMAINING SITES ARE TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MIN RHS IN THE 40-50% RANGE. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TO OUR
WEST AND STALLS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THAT MAY BE CLOSE
TO TYING OR BREAKING WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST.
MARCH 4:
KEET: 84/2022
KTCL: 83/1976
MARCH 5:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 83/2022
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1974
KMGM: 85/1989
MARCH 6:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 81/2023
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1974
KMGM: 86/2022
MARCH 7:
KBHM: 84/1956
KEET: 83/2023
KANB: 85/1974
KTCL: 85/2023
KMGM: 87/2023
MARCH 8:
KEET: 81/2000
MARCH 9:
KEET: 80/2016
KMGM: 85/1974
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 51 78 55 81 / 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 52 79 56 82 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 55 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 56 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 54 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 54 78 58 80 / 0 0 0 20
MONTGOMERY 53 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 20
TROY 53 80 57 83 / 0 0 0 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/25/OWEN
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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